Governments confident of IRA move soon

SPECULATION is mounting that the IRA will finally make a statement on its future, perhaps as soon as Thursday of this week.

Although the statement, called for by Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams on April 6, has been said to be imminent for weeks now, both governments were last night increasingly confident the IRA was now ready to move.

An Irish Government spokesperson said it continues to hope for a positive response from the IRA: “What is required is an end to paramilitarism, an end to criminal activities and the completion for decommissioning.”

There were reports from security sources that contacts between senior figures in both governments and Sinn Féin were continuing over the weekend.

In addition, the IRA was said to be continuing with its own internal discussions. That debate has been raging since Mr Adams called on the IRA to “embrace democracy”.

“Can you take courageous initiatives which will achieve your aims by purely political and democratic activity?” was the direct challenge he laid down to the IRA at the time.

Although a response from the IRA was expected before the marching season, it has been persistently delayed as many of those involved dedicated their attentions to preventing serious eruptions of damaging violence during contentious marches.

However now, several factors - including the weekend disclosure that Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Martin Ferris have stepped down from the IRA’s seven-member army council - have served to heighten renewed anticipation of a statement in the coming days.

The change of guard at the army council has already prompted Independent Monitoring Commission members General John de Chastelain and Andrew Sens to postpone plans to return to America yesterday.

Should an IRA statement outlining the organisation’s intention to decommission completely be forthcoming, General de Chastelain will ultimately have to subsequently confirm any final act of decommissioning before making a detailed inventory of weapons destroyed available to both governments.

With British prime minister Tony Blair unavailable for much of August, any IRA failure to come forward with an acceptable statement before the end of this week will likely result in the process being stalled until at least the early autumn.

However, speaking yesterday Northern Secretary Peter Hain said he would welcome a statement from the IRA on its future.

Mr Hain reiterated that it was important that any IRA statement make it absolutely “clear the only future for them was a peaceful one”.

Back home Government officials have repeatedly stressed that any IRA statement needs to be definitive and matched by a total and verifiable act of decommissioning. One source even suggested it would be better for the IRA to delay a statement if it was going to fall short of what was required by both Governments.

However, both Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness have said they believe the IRA will ultimately make a positive statement on its future.