Durkan and Trimble fight for survival

Harry McGee, Political Editor

As early returns last night indicated that Labour Party leader Tony Blair has been returned to Downing Street as prime minister for a historic third term albeit with a substantially reduced majority focus this morning turned to Northern Ireland, where the votes are counted a day later.

With indications of a high turnout for yesterday's elections in the North's 18 Westminster constituencies, the consensus view of strong swings to Sinn Féin and the DUP remained unchanged.

Mr Durkan faces a tough fight to retain the SDLP seat in Foyle against Sinn Féin's Mitchel McLaughlin. While the consensus is that the battle for John Hume's former seat is too close to call, SF has been saying for the past few days that their canvass returns show that Mr McLaughlin should take the seat.

The view has been challenged by the SDLP who say that a co-ordinated get- out-the-vote campaign will stave off the challenge of their republican rivals in Derry, a city that has traditionally been an SDLP stronghold.

The odds also look strongly stacked against Mr Trimble, who is defending a narrow majority in Upper Bann. Although the UUP leader has a reputation as a political survivor, the massive campaign mounted by his DUP rival, Portadown businessman, David Simpson may seal Mr Trimble's political fate.

On a wider context, there is little doubt that today's result will signal a sea-change in Northern politics, with the DUP and SF completely shutting out their rivals.

In addition to Foyle, SF's Conor Murphy is strong favourite to take Seamus Mallon's former seat in Newry-Armagh. If SF takes both seats, the party will have six MPs with

the SDLP representation reduced to one, Eddie McGrady in South Down.

Likewise, the UUP faces meltdown at the hands of the DUP. Ian Paisley's party could end up winning 10 of the 18 seats in the North, with Lady Sylvia Hermon in North Down remaining the UUP's sole MP.

The SDLP has been talking up the chances of Alasdair McDonnell winning in South Belfast. However, the DUP's Jimmy Spratt is favourite to take the seat ahead of Mr McDonnell and Michael McGimpsey.

Mr McDonnell's hopes of squeezing through could be compromised by a strong showing by SF's Alex Maskey.

The turnout last night looked as strong as the 72% turnout in 2001. Voting for all 18 constituencies begins in late morning, with the first results expected at about 4pm.