Skymatters: How being predictable in science can be really exciting

A cable car moves towards the San Agustin neighborhood as a supermoon rises in the sky of Caracas, Venezuela, Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023. Picture: AP Photo/Matias Delacroix

Predicting the future is a mug’s game. Who knows what 2024 will bring? Uncertainty seems to be inevitably threaded through our lives. We make new year’s resolutions in the almost certain knowledge that they will fall foul of the predictable unpredictability of living.

By contrast, predicting the future is the staple diet, or at least the objective goal, of science and the scientific method. It has led to some of the most spectacular successes which of themselves have driven the development of astronomy and space science. For example, as we enter 2024 we know how gravity works today. We know that it worked in the same way some 4.5bn years ago when the Earth was formed and even up to 13.8bn years ago when the universe was formed. We can be pretty sure that it will work identically tomorrow, and the day after …. and the day after that. Our confidence in this assertion is founded on countless experiments and observations over hundreds of years.

This predictability might be something we have never really thought about, but it gives us confidence in our efforts in 2024 to take three men and one woman on a 10-day trip around the moon on Nasa’s Artemis mission, or to the faraway moons of Jupiter through the Nasa Europa Clipper mission scheduled for launch in October 2024, or to rendezvous with Mars’ moon Phobos and bring samples back to Earth through Japan’s Martian Moons eXploration mission, or to attempt the first return of samples from the far side of the moon in May 2024 through China’s Chang’e-6 mission — and so much more. All of these missions rely on us knowing how gravity works — and some pretty cool engineering too! Far from being dull, being predictable opens up huge avenues of exploration and the ensuing excitement of unpredictable discoveries which are only possible because they piggyback on predictability.

Until 2010 there were about 100 global satellite launches per year, while in 2021 alone there were over 1,200

We know that in 2024 there will be a partial eclipse of the sun on April 8, and a full eclipse of the moon on September 18. More on those in future columns — possibly. And we can predict there will be three supermoons and about another 350 appearances of the moon that will be, in my opinion, just as “super”.

One space mission that is really novel and due for launch in 2024 is led by Kyoto University and is a joint mission between the Japanese Space Agency and Nasa. It’s unique because unlike conventional small satellites (called cubesats), which are of metal construction, this one will have a wooden frame. The team tested three types of wood on the International Space Station: Erman’s birch — which is commonly found in East Asia — Japanese cherry, and magnolia obovata — a species native to Japan.

The magnolia was selected as being the best option due to its resilience in the harsh environment of space and resistance to cracking or splitting. If this pilot mission is successful, it might pave the way to reduce pollution caused when cubesats burn up in the atmosphere at the end of their lifetime.

Predicting how many satellites will be in orbit in future years is, well, unpredictable, but we get a sense of the trend when we realise that up until 2010 there were about 100 global satellite launches per year, while in 2021 alone there were over 1,200. If the numbers continue to grow, we will likely see an increase in microscopic metallic particles high up in our atmosphere.

Not surprisingly, whatever we can do to reverse such a trend whilst still bringing the multitude of benefits from satellites to people on Earth will only become more important.

There’s no doubt that the planets affect our behaviour. I’m not referring to astrology, I’m referring to the many missions which, based on predictabilities of how our universe works, catalyse teams of enthusiastic people to push the boundaries of what’s possible.

Here’s to 2024 … and beyond.