COP on to the needs of Nature — we're facing a 'Sixth Mass Extinction'
Flossie Donnelly from Dun Laoghaire on South Anne Street, Dublin during a protest by Extinction Rebellion Ireland and allies during a rally to highlight the biodiversity crisis in Ireland while, in Montreal, Canada, the 15th meeting of the United Nations’ Convention (COP 15) on Biological Diversity took place from December 7-19. Photo: Gareth Chaney/ Collins Photos
How much space for nature is enough?
This has been one of the core questions debated at the UN Biodiversity Conference (CBD COP 15) in Montreal, Canada. This global biodiversity summit has been the most important international event for biodiversity in more than a decade, where the future of global biodiversity is being decided by representatives from 196 countries, including Ireland. As with the UN Climate Change conferences held every few years (also called COP — conference of the parties), this biodiversity COP set out to agree a collective approach to halt the loss of biodiversity over the next decade.
The issues at hand and the process for coming to agreement are complex. But one proposal that is key to the success of a biodiversity agreement is the plan to set aside 30% of Earth’s land and sea for nature by 2030. Known as the '30x30', this target has been hugely contentious. Some say that 30% is too much, while others insist that 30% does not go far enough.
For comparison, when the climate COP took place in Paris in 2015, there was much debate about the ambition to limit global heating to 1.5°C or 2°. The consequences of 2-degree rise in global temperatures will be far more devastating than the already devastating impacts of a 1.5-degree rise in temperatures. As part of the Paris Agreement, all parties agreed to take measures to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The debate over whether to set aside 30% or 50% of the earth’s area for nature restoration is similar in that higher ambition has a better chance of averting widespread ecosystem breakdown than a more modest 30% target. The negotiation of a comparable 'Paris Agreement' for biodiversity with a set of actions to halt and reverse biodiversity loss will be similarly challenging to implement.
Where does the idea of a 30% target come from? One of the leading biologists of the 20th and 21st centuries, Professor Edward O Wilson, who died one year ago on December 26, 2021 at the age of 92, was a keen proponent o of setting aside at least half the planet in reserve, as the only way to “save the living part of the environment and achieve the stabilisation required for our own survival”.
The ‘Sixth Mass Extinction’ that we are now facing is predicted to lead to the loss of half of all plant and animal species by the end of the century. Each species is key to the web of life, each has a role in its ecosystem. So when so many key species are eliminated, functioning ecosystems completely unravel.
Without healthy ecosystems, we will be left without the resources we need to survive. When we consider the magnitude of the threat, setting aside 50% of the earth's land and sea for the recovery of biodiversity seems like a good deal. Allocating 30% is unlikely to be enough.
In February 2022 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said in a major report that safeguarding biodiversity requires 30-50% of land and sea to be prioritised for nature. This recognises the role of natural forests, peat bogs, soil biota, ocean ecosystems, and many more ecosystem types in maintaining the conditions that make life on earth possible. In Ireland as across the globe, it is imperative that we implement far-reaching solutions such as this to facilitate the survival of the majority of the estimated 8 million other species whom we share this planet with.
The agreed targets will take time to unpick. Details of how areas will be selected and how restoration of habitats will be managed and financed are crucial to how effective the agreement will be. Major financial contributions from rich nations are needed to support biodiversity measures in the most biodiverse nations in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Protecting the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities is paramount to the success of this whole endeavour. Indigenous Peoples are stewards of a high proportion of the earth’s richest biodiversity areas, calculated at about 80%. Their critical role in conservation needs to be recognised and their control over these areas secured.
What would protecting 30% of land and sea for nature mean for Ireland? Well, it’s no more than what is currently planned anyway. Protecting 30% of marine area is already an agreed EU target. On December 13 this year Ireland made progress toward this by designating two new marine Special Areas of Conservation under the EU Habitats Directive, one off the northwest coast and another off the south, bringing Ireland's MPA up to 10% by summer 2023. Apparently, we are on course to have the required 30% of our maritime area protected by 2030. If the areas within these MPAs are properly protected, there is a decent chance that marine biodiversity will begin to rebound. Dwindling fish stocks may recover along with the marine habitats that store and sequester carbon and shield coastal communities from some of the worst impacts of climate change.
On land, there are already EU targets in place to give nature priority across 30% of land area by 2030 under the EU Biodiversity Strategy, the Green Deal. However, achieving meaningful conservation within these areas is a whole lot more complex than drawing lines on maps.
Setting aside places to restore nature will also have to be accompanied by reductions in the pressures we incur on nature everywhere. The underlying causes of biodiversity loss, including rampant overconsumption, will need to be addressed. The agreement includes measures to reduce pollution and pesticide use too. Agreement must be followed by strong implementation, which is always more challenging. None of this is going to be easy.
Yet it is imperative that we succeed. We are left with a very narrow window of time to prevent total collapse of the Earth’s climate and ecosystems. Allocating a minimum 30% Key Biodiversity Areas is a critical first step to protect the most important places for nature. Implementing robust and meaningful nature restoration in those areas is now a global priority.
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