Caitríona Redmond: I've been tracking groceries for 6 months, here's how much it's gone up
Six months ago the cheapest basket cost €17.36 from Aldi
It’s been quite some time since I started tracking key grocery items for the Irish Examiner, my first spreadsheet came to life on March 23, 2022 and it seems fitting that this week, at the half year/six-month mark that I review it and see what has changed. I’m not going to say ‘if anything’ because it’s obvious grocery prices are going up.
If you’ve not been tracking the grid each week with me let’s recap what our sample shopping basket looks like. Each week across all the 5 main supermarkets I document the price of the following items:
- 227g of butter (half pound)
- 1 litre of full-fat milk
- 200g block of Cheddar cheese
- 500g dried pasta
- 1 large sliced pan (white)
- 454g of beef mince (1 pound)
- 1 large chicken (not free-range)
- 400g of digestive biscuits
- 2kg bag of potatoes
- 6 free-range medium eggs
- 1kg carrots
While the basket won’t feed your family for a week, it’s a way of tracking key grocery items that many families would buy on a weekly basis and an indicator of the overall grocery market.
Six months ago the cheapest basket cost €17.36 and Aldi beat all their competitors to take home the crown in the first week. Last week the cheapest basket was from Lidl and cost €18.12, helped in part by a special offer. Aldi’s basket last week had no special offers and cost €19.36, which is a whopping €2 more than six months ago.
The most expensive supermarket in the first week of the trolley survey was Tesco, costing €19.80. They were also the most expensive last week costing €21.66 for the exact same list of items. Again nearly €2 more than when I first started tracking sample prices.
There have been some hero items in the shopping basket that have consistently stayed around the same price regardless and top of the crop (excusing the pun) are carrots. At the start of the survey a 1kg bag of carrots generally cost 99c, unless they were on special offer. Nowadays the same bag of carrots cost 99c, unless you’re shopping in SuperValu or Tesco that is where it has increased to €1.09 and €1.05 respectively.
I’ll come back to the cost of some dairy products later, but for now, 200g of cheddar cheese is holding its own in the discount supermarkets and has not increased in price over the past six months. The same can be said for pasta.
Half a dozen medium free range eggs went up in price partway through the six month period to as much as €1.79 in some retailers but has settled back at the original price at the start of the survey; €1.59. There are cheaper eggs to be found but they not necessarily free range, but when you are on a budget needs must.
Digestive biscuits have remained roughly the same cost but supply has been an issue here with some retailers now having their own brand items in stock on occasion which has rocketed the cost of the shopping basket. This is due to having to add big brand names to the basket which pushed the price upwards.
Potatoes fluctuated in price across the six month period. They have been an interesting sample because at times the cost of a 2kg bag of potatoes could be offset by buying 2 x 1kg bags on special offer in many supermarkets. At other times as the new potatoes came into season it was difficult to get a bag priced less than €2.29. Farmers are continuing to harvest potatoes at the moment and it’s difficult to predict what way the prices will go this Winter.
Of all the price increases this year, the one I have been contacted the most about is the price of butter.
I track the cost of a traditional old half pound of butter, being one of the few items that we still refer to using the imperial measurement system. On the 23rd of March it cost €1.49 no matter where you bought your butter. As of last week that same pack of butter cost as much as €1.89 and there is no sign of any relief from that price, in fact it may go higher before Christmas which is not good news for traditional Christmas cakes or buttered barm brack.
A large (economy) sliced pan cost 75c when I started tracking prices, it now costs 90c no matter where you shop and again it’s a significant rise for such a budget item.
Milk is the second most popular item I’ve been contacted about. In March a litre of milk cost 85c and last week a litre cost €1.05 making it probably the biggest price increase in my sample shopping basket. There’s no sign of the price receding either, in fact depending on feed options over the Winter and the weather it may increase by a good bit more.
In March the cheapest large chicken cost €4.69 and last week the cheapest large chicken cost €4.99 with the most expensive costing €6.00. That’s only part of the picture though as there has been an issue with supply of certain size chickens for a number of supermarkets over the previous six months. Some weeks I’ve not been able to track prices as there simply weren’t chickens in stock to price.
Minced beef is an interesting one because Dunnes Stores has a value pack costing €2 with an average fat content of aboutu 20%. This price has not fluctuated in six months but the availability has recently which may indicate that more people are opting for the budget minced beef with higher fat content as opposed to more expensive lower-fat choices.
The perfect storm has arisen due to increased cost of fertiliser, transport, and wheat which is due in part to the conflict in Ukraine. However, it can’t all be blamed on the conflict and equally climate change and a long Covid hangover are also factors in the price increases.
As the cost of energy rises this winter, there will be additional price increases to match the higher cost of manufacturing and distributing our food. Also, supermarkets lock in their prices many many months in advance of the food arriving on the shelves. This means that we can expect further increases to continue long beyond this winter.
Traditionally, special offers have been a way to attract us to shop in a particular supermarket and a way to cushion our budget from major price increases. But have you noticed that there if there are discounts in store they offer less value for money?
You are probably seeing far more stickers that say “buy one get one half price” as opposed to the traditional BOGOF (buy one get one free). The increased costs of manufacturing and distributing food have impacted on supplier and retailer margins so there is less wiggle room to offer the customer value for their money.
It was extremely handy to have a money-off voucher for (say) Dunnes Stores that you could present at Tesco to get the same amount of money off your shopping. Supermarket-specific vouchers can no longer be traded across retailers and each retailer is now bending over backwards to show you they alone offer you the best value for your money. Clubs and loyalty cards suggest that you are part of something greater. Loyalty rewards are more targetted to frequent shoppers and if you shift supermarket from one week to the next you’re more likely to lose out on the special offers, but not on better value for your Euros I hasten to add.
It’s very simple. We stay loyal to our wallets and not the supermarkets. It’s rare that key staples end up on special offer so journey to whatever shop matches your shopping budget. Don’t forget to continue to check out my weekly survey and stay aware of what’s the best value and where.
