Climate change extremes could cost Irish agriculture €2bn annually
Commissioned by the Stop Climate Chaos (SCC) coalition, Dr Flood’s research calculates the projected economic impacts of climate change on Irish agriculture over the next 40 years. Dr Flood’s research predicts winter rainfall may rise 17% by the 2080s, with summer rainfall falling 25%, most notably in the southern and eastern coastal areas.
Dr Flood predicts the changes in rainfall and temperatures will cause changes in the range and prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, increased stress factors for animals, changes in water availability and crop yields, and difficulties in providing sufficient resources for animals during certain periods.
SCC spokesperson Niamh Garvey said: “Adapting existing agricultural practices to take account of future climate change impacts is a prudent strategy.
“Potential actions include increasing crop diversity and varieties, altering planting and harvesting dates, planning for and implementing water supply management strategies, and supporting research to identify crops that can grow more successfully in the next 10 to 20 years.”
Meanwhile, the NUIM research also points to potential opportunities for Irish farmers arising from climate change. Wheat and beet yields are projected to increase significantly by the middle of this century.
The outlook for Irish grain exports is promising, as European countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Serbia are expected to experience significant decreases in crop yields, due to increasing water shortages.
Agriculture Minister Simon Coveney formally unveiled the research at a ceremony in Dublin yesterday. He said he has sought to incorporate climate change predictions into the Food Harvest 2020 export goals for Irish agri-food.
“There is a large amount of work under way within my department on climate change mitigation measures,” said Mr Coveney. “In addressing climate change, it is essential that everyone plays their part and, in this regard, I am delighted to see key representatives of both the farming and environmental sectors here today, intent on finding ways to work together to ensure the ongoing success of Irish agriculture.”
Yesterday’s event was also addressed by Dr Gary Lanigan, research officer with Teagasc; John Brennan of the Leitrim Organic Farmers’ group; and Dr Stephen Flood, the author of the research report.
However, IFA president John Bryan said there was no substance to the predictions as they are based on unsubstantiated assumptions. Mr Bryan said the report’s authors accept their research is based upon assumptions. He notes, for instance, that the cost to the arable sector is put at a far higher level than its entire output at the moment.
Mr Bryan said: “What is real and deliverable are the growth plans for the sector, which are on track based on what has happened since 2009. Food Harvest expansion plans are sustainable. Our export target is actually ahead of where we expected to be in 2013 and agriculture is one of the few sectors reporting a rise in jobs this year”.
- www.stopclimatechaos.ie
