A little weather knowledge can be dangerous
The words of Martin Ryan, manager at Mid Tipp Mart in Thurles on Tuesday, as he assessed the fall-out from the dreadful weather and this week's price pull at the factories, coupled with farmers’ assessment of very long range weather forecasts via the internet.
I start this week however in Bandon on Monday, where there were 360 cattle on offer along with 350 calves.
"Another big sale for the day of the year," said manager Tom McCarthy.
"It was a tougher sale, especially for yearling stock," he said, although the calf trade remained largely unaffected, as did the trade for heavier stock. "Two year old cattle, the 550kg plus ones, were no problem," he commented.
The sale averages worked out as follows:
* Cull cows: €100 to €650 with the weight.
* Fr bullocks: €200 to €670 with the weight.
* Cont bullocks: €400 to €850 with the weight.
* Heifers: €300 to €800 with the weight.
As in every other part of the country, the effects of the weather weigh heavily on the local farming community, with Tom commenting, "There's a lot of pressure on men with cattle in yards".
A situation I can readily associate with, because like many others around the country, I have re-housed stock after a futile struggle to keep them outdoors.
Meanwhile over the road in Fermoy/Corrin, on Tuesday, Sean Leahy was in very good form.
"Numbers are remaining strong when in actual fact they should be quiet," he said. He told me they had a full clearance and he was, "Very happy with the trade".
He qualified that by saying, "Prices were probably a bit more realistic for some types though".
The cow trade was steady despite the poor weather, a result of, he said, the fact that their numbers had dropped from about the 100 mark of previous weeks to 60 this week.
"Supply and demand was just nicely balanced, and the men selling were happy." But some of the men selling the stronger cattle, he said, were finishers who had this year decided "not to go the full trip".
Kanturk is also on Tuesday, and this week, they had 350 cattle and 250 calves go under the hammer.
Michael Scanlon said, “The weather is now chasing stock out."
That said, prices for the heavier type animal were well maintained, with factory buyers stumping up good money despite the reported price pull.
Plainer stock however were easier, Michael said, with farmer buyers a little scarcer than recently.
Michael touched on a fact that has slightly mystified me of late. If cattle are coming off heavy or waterlogged ground to be sold at a mart, are not the men buying them equally having to deal with exactly the same conditions when they get them home?
The answer has to be that some of the cattle being bought at marts must be going straight into sheds until conditions improve.
Also reporting a fall off in the number of farmer buyers this week was Michael Harty of Nenagh mart.
Michael's sale, also on Tuesday, saw 400 animals tendered, with the trade "quieter".
Michael said, "The weather had to take its toll eventually, especially on the plainer ones".
There wasn't, he said, the "same bite" to proceedings on Tuesday, although the good quality bullock, as everywhere else, still continues to cut the mustard.
The reality however is, as Michael put it, "Prices up until now were on a very high plateau, especially for the Friesian animal, and they are now the first ones to ease back."
Heifers too were easier, with what Michael described as "Run of the mill ones back by €50 to €60 a head."
As in other places, Michael felt a lot of men are now looking down the road and wondering exactly how much winter fodder they will end up with, and this is feeding into a sense of "caution ringside, he said.
Continuing in Tipperary where the sale in Thurles saw 600 cattle arrive in the Mid Tipp Mart yard on Monday. Martin Ryan said it was becoming obvious that the confidence that has built up in the trade over the last two and a half years is beginning to shake.
The major factor is "of course, the weather" he said, however the effect of the recent factory price pull coupled with uncertainty over grass supply, ground conditions and winter fodder supply could cause a cascade effect on prices, should finishers and store producers loose their nerve.
A thought occurred to me after putting down the phone. What if everyone puts their faith in these long range forecasts you can now get via the internet (most of which, by the way, are not great for the remainder of the month), and then we add those predictions to our own situation at home, plus throw in the speculation of what the factories might do to prices should the weather remain poor — and you could very quickly end up with what Martin called "a self-fulfilling prophecy".
Factories pull the prices, farmers believe the weather will remain poor, they speculate on the possibility of factories getting extra stock as a result, which could lead to a further price pull, so they sell to avoid the speculated price drop.
This results in processors getting extra stock, enabling them to reduce the price still further, those farmers not selling become nervous and begin planning to also move, thus further increasing the supply, and all because we can now supposedly know the weather a month in advance (Met Eireann experts say you can only rely on a five-day forecast, at best).
A little knowledge can be a very dangerous thing!
Over in Carlow on Monday, farmers didn't need to look up the internet to tell them the weather was "diabolical", as my informant who was at the sale told me.
Again, it was a case of caution as buyers took stock of their situations.
My source tells me that prices for both the better quality bullocks and heifers were maintained, while the lesser animal suffered somewhat, price-wise.
That said, the prices in Carlow look every bit as respectable as anywhere else. The weather was once again the main topic of discussion, but with men more concerned at not being able to get work done as opposed to predicting any further price cuts at the factory gate.
The feeling among some present was that when you get a day's rain in 20 minutes, and a month’s rain in a week, "the weather is neither right nor natural."
No one’s going to argue the toss on that point.
Kilmallock in Limerick on Monday saw yet another larger than normal for the time of the year sale, with numbers up 33% on the same day last year, at 1087 — which included 320 calves.
Prices for good quality cattle and calves were well maintained, but with the plainer lots meeting a "tougher trade" according to Denis Kirby.
Despite the reports that farmers were being asked to take less at the factory gates, Denis said factory agents were "bidding strongly" for what they wanted, which included the better type cull cow. However, her lesser sister, "straight from the milking parlour", found the going tougher than recent weeks, Denis said.
Meanwhile in New Ross on last Saturday, Richard Kirwan said their trade has also been affected by weather and ground issues.
"The steam," he said, "has eased off a bit, price-wise, maybe €20 to €30 across all classes," he said.
It was at this point in our conversation that Mother Nature decided to show exactly how difficult she can make things, as the rain pelted down yet again in that part of the world, accompanied by thunder and lighting that caused a temporary power outage that severed our phone connection.
Communications restored, and Richard said they are seeing a lot of Friesian type bulls, and as a result, 2011-born Friesian bullocks are becoming scarce, for the moment at least.
Heavy cattle were "a good show" with a sizeable turnout. These animals were much to the liking of the Northern factory buyers present, who promptly took on their local southern cousins, who then found the going tougher than usual.
Finally it's to Galway we go and Monday’s sale in Tuam. Mart manager Marion Devane was in ebullient form! "A great week for Galway" she proclaimed. "The Volvo Ocean Race was tremendous, we had music and craic galore."
“ And what of Kilkenny?” I asked
"Oh yeah, we bet them too." Looks a bit like Joe Canning and company will have to do bigger things, come September, if they are really to get Marion Devane's attention!
Regardless of possible future sporting success, Marion described Monday's sale of 600 animals, mainly weanling stock as, "A good sale, dynamic, but with realistic prices". The shippers, she said, were "very active", buying very strongly and making it difficult for the local men to get a line on the top end quality. Understandable when I see 435 kg Belgian Blue bulls making €1,400, and a Belgian Blue heifer of 420 kg hitting €1,250!
