Classic example of conflicting national targets in Food Harvest
Ireland has a target to reduce emissions by 20%, compared to 1990. Agriculture in Ireland accounts for 28% of greenhouse gas emissions (only in New Zealand is the ratio higher), amounting to 17.5 million tonnes of carbon, having reduced by about 12% compared to 1990.
Further emission reduction is expected in the 28% increase in milk supply scenario because the increased greenhouse gas emissions from the dairy herd would be offset by declining emissions from the beef herd.
However, the agricultural emissions target of a reduction of 20% would not be achieved, according to Hanrahan and Donnellan. (Other sectors of the Irish economy don’t look as if they will achieve their targets either).
Achieving the ambitious Food Harvest expansion targets would lead to an increase in emissions of about 800,000 tonnes, according to Hanrahan and Donnellan.
We have here a classic example of conflicting national targets, where the achievement of one makes the other less achievable. However, their analysis does not take into account the possible impact of other actions in the environmental area, such as increased forestry or bioenergy. In the final analysis, the Government (presuming it has some money to spare by 2020) could purchase credits to cover for any excess in greenhouse gas production, as it had planned to do in the current years before the recession led to a dramatic reduction in emissions.
