Market trends

The main trends in the market are UK sheepmeat production falling by almost 5%, and French consumption anticipated to ease somewhat.

The Meat and Livestock Commission in the UK forecasts a fall of almost 5%, or 15,000 tonnes, in the volume of UK sheepmeat production during 2007. Import volumes look set to be maintained while tighter domestic supplies are expected to reduce the amount of sheepmeat available for consumption. Little change is forecast in export volumes, although much is likely to depend on the relative returns in the UK compared to export markets such as France.

A drop of 2% in the UK sheep flock in June 2006 is expected to reduce the 2007 lamb crop, and also moderate the level of cull ewe disposals. For the year as a whole, lamb supplies are forecast to fall by 4%, or 550,000 head, to 13.55 million head. The lower than expected carry-over to date could reduce this figure further. Most of the drop is anticipated from April onwards, reflecting a smaller lamb crop. In terms of cull ewe supplies, a drop of 14% is expected, to 1.94 million head.