UK milk output expected to fall 1.1bn litres below quota
More of the larger producers are leaving the industry than were originally expected, according to investigations led by Professor David Colman of the University of Manchester.
Supply shortages could hit some areas of the UK dairy industry.
Britain's three major milk processors Arla, Dairy Crest and Robert Wiseman have all cut the price they pay to farmers this summer, a trend which could drive out yet more producers.
Dairy Hygiene Inspectorate figures show dairy farmer numbers continuing to decline, with 61 exiting the industry last July, a month when UK dairy farmers turned in their lowest deliveries of milk since 1998, bringing the deficit compared to quota in the year so far to nearly 210m litres.
Farmers are expected to push out milk as fast as they can in coming months to overcome the shortfall. But they will make a profit of only 1.5c per litre, or 7c per gallon, according to the Farmers for Action group.
They led blockades at Scottish milk processors last week, amid concerns about the exodus from dairy farming.
One in four Scottish dairy farmers has gone out of business in the past six years, leaving only 1,400. "The dairy industry in Scotland is now at breaking point," said National Farmers Union of Scotland president John Kinnaird.
