Confusion over cattle supply forecast
The downward revision of the predicted supply of cattle to the end of the year is a seasonal correction in the expected increase in supply over the final quarter of this year over 2003 intake, because of a number of factors, not least being the ending of the EU premia scheme on a headage basis.
All of the indicators suggest that cattle supplies will remain strong for the remaining weeks of this year as producers sell stock that might normally be carried over to the New Year, to benefit from the €80/head Slaughter Premium which ends on December 31.
The Bord Bia analysis concurs with this view and they have clearly stated that cattle supply is “likely to result in approximately 30,000 extra cattle during the final quarter of the year with this increase being split evenly between steers, young bulls, and cows, while heifer numbers should remain relatively similar to year earlier levels“.
They point to the influencing factors as the lower supply of cattle year to date - an overall reduction of 6% and bullocks lower by 10% - as well as more young bulls being sold to benefit from the bull premia, and an increase in bullock disposals as producers avail of Slaughter Premia.
An increase of 30,000 head on the 2003 final quarter supply should give an average factory kill over the October-December period of around 40,000 head weekly average.
Supply increased to a year high of almost 44,000 head for the first week in October, before dropping back slightly last week to 42,237 head. Last week’s bullock supply was 22,794 head compared to 24,893 head the previous week.
