Majority of tillage farmers could lose under CAP, says economist
Economist Fiona Thorne told the Teagasc National Tillage Conference in Carlow yesterday with no change in production patterns average tillage farm incomes will drop 7% by 2012.
The analysis contrasts with the results of a recent Teagasc survey on tillage farmer reactions to the new policy. The majority of the farmers surveyed felt the complete decoupling of payments from production would not affect their production systems or profit levels.
“Our analysis is a wake-up call for tillage farmers and highlights the importance of a detailed assessment and the development of a plan to suit the particular circumstances of each farm,” said Fiona Thorne.
Under the new policy, which comes into effect on January 1, 2005, Irish tillage farmers will be paid an average ‘entitlement’ of 63/hectare.
The Teagasc analysis shows that the least efficient one-third of tillage farmers would be better off drawing their entitlements and cease producing crops. Ms Thorne stressed that increased productivity or a change of farming system could dramatically improve the income prospects for the majority of tillage farmers.
The new policy will also allow farmers to sell their entitlements. According to Fiona Thorne, the price of an entitlement would need to be in excess of 1,500/hectare before it could be economically justified.
Dr Eugene O’Sullivan, Teagasc Tillage Research Centre at Oak Park, told the conference more than 95% of crops sampled last year had resistance of wheat disease Septoria to new fungicides called strobilurins.
