Ministers fight CAP changes
France's President Chirac, a former agriculture minister, may insist on the postponement of any changes until 2006, when the EU's structural funds will be up for negotiation, bringing more bargaining chips to the table.
Nearly all 15 EU farm ministers expressed misgivings last Monday, as the proposals got their first public airing .
With ministers from at least nine member states voicing opposition, the EU's Danish presidency admitted there were huge differences over the proposals.
Minister Boel of Denmark said she intended to move discussions forward quickly, and Farm Commissioner Franz Fischler said he hoped ministers would reach an agreement by October or November and that a reform plan could be unveiled "in March 2003 at the earliest".
But the Commission was accused by the French minister of taking on responsibilities way beyond its mandated opposition.
The EU presidency and the Commission will seek an agreed outcome to the proposals but opponents were cheered this week by the early alignments which would indicate resounding defeat if the proposals were ever put to a qualified majority vote.
"We cannot keep on changing farm policies and the rules of the game," said French agriculture minister Herve Gaymard.
"Farmers need to know which rules to follow and need stability in their work."
Ireland's Joe Walsh expressed similar objections.
Spain's Minister Canate said the proposals were a "dangerous experiment", and Portugal's Minister Pinto said the reforms risk "compromising the future of several experiments, including entire regions that have less competitive farm sectors".
The ministers from Italy and Greece also criticised the reforms, and Luxembourg and Austria joined France in refusing to tie farm reform to EU expansion.
There is stiff opposition also from Belgium.
Britain, the Netherlands and Sweden back up Germany's tentative support for CAP reform. But Britain faces the same stumbling block which hindered them in the 1999 CAP reform talks the £1bn to £2bn a year rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher in 1984.
Although Germany's Minister Kuenast has broadly backed the reform, this may be immaterial after the country's September's elections, in which CAP reform is already emerging as a campaign issue. Edmund Stoiber, the Bavarian election challenger, has made clear his opposition to Fischler's proposals, and he visited Paris this week to cement relations with the French opponents of the CAP plan.
Mr Stoiber would seek to postpone CAP reform until the EU expands in 2004.
Even the sitting Berlin government fears the effects of the proposals on their poorer eastern farms, vulnerable to proposals which hit large farms and growers of rye.
East German farmers have said hundreds of farms could close with up to 40,000 jobs lost, if proposals on rye and the direct subsidies cap of 300,000 per farm were implemented. The EU currently has 4.4 million tonnes of unsold intervention grains, 3.5 million tonnes is rye, mostly in Germany.