AS a new year unfolds, the next phase of the recession will be more brutal. At every level, be it household, business or nationally, we have been busily adjusting our expenditure in line with reduced incomes and revenue. As the situation deteriorated, we kept our focus on survival. Each situation eventually stabilises.

TODAY is the last day of the noughties decade. Many milestone events have occurred in politics, economics and global affairs.

OUT here in the real economy, the worldly-wise knew in mid-2007 that the Celtic Tiger was dead. Property prices started to fall, spending slowed, job losses accelerated and business sentiment turned sour.

FINANCE Minister Brian Lenihan’s budget assertion that “the worst is over” is sadly wide of the mark. There cannot be recovery in the real economy unless and until solutions are found to secure the viability of our banks and building societies.

RATHER like a terminal illness, no matter how rational the expectation, the final act is somewhat shocking. This budget was comprehensively leaked to the media over the past week.

AN Irishman’s notion of foreplay has been described as “Brace yourself, Bridget”. This aptly applies to next week’s budget. The yawning gap between public expenditure and revenue has grown over the past two years and is now at crisis levels.

I AM increasingly convinced that events move in cycles. Our current economic difficulties, particularly the unsustainability of the public finances seem to mirror the 1980s — increased borrowing, political procrastination, public sector conflict and, ultimately, cutbacks.

THE Dáil this week has a pre-budget debate. Eamon Gilmore and Enda Kenny need to watch out for the offside rule. In soccer, no forward can be in front of the last defender other than the goalie, while ahead of the ball. The best defences move up the pitch and suddenly players are ruled offside. The Government’s political defenders are perceptibly shifting ground.

REPORTS indicate the frailty of male mental health. Stress and depression are leading to more psychiatric hospital admissions. Statistics indicate male suicide is up 40%.

POLITICAL and other spin doctors know how to manage a crisis. The critical factor is to hang on. They believe virtually all news media cycles are “nine-day wonders”.