'Persistent decline' in consumer long-term economic outlook

Only a quarter of those surveyed expect the economy to be stronger in five years' time, down from  47% in 2022 and 29% last year

Irish consumer sentiment improved marginally during February. 

There has been a “persistent decline” in Irish consumers' long-term outlook for the economy with just a quarter of people expecting it to be stronger over the next five years, the latest Credit Union consumer sentiment survey shows.

Despite the weaker outlook for the long-term strength of the economy, Irish consumer sentiment improved marginally during February, the fourth month of increases in a row.

The Credit Union consumer sentiment survey shows an index reading of 65.2 in February 2026, up slightly on the 64.7 figure recorded in January 2026 , but this is still materially weaker than the February 2025 reading of 74.8.

The Credit Union Irish consumer sentiment survey is conducted in association with Core Research on a sample of a 1,000 Irish adults. Analysis of the sentiment survey was written by economist Austin Hughes.

While the gains in consumer sentiment have been relatively limited in recent months, they have proven enough to bring the index to an eleven-month high in February.

The analysis said that the “resilience” of the Irish economy over the last 12 months, coupled with easing inflation, suggest that Irish consumers may see the year ahead as not being as difficult as expected.

Mr Hughes cited a number of reasons for consumers not being as pessimistic in their outlook over the next 12 months including favourable gross domestic product data for the end of 2025, as well as encouraging exchequer returns and the announcement that Novo Nordisk would produce its weight-loss pill in Ireland for markets outside the US.

“That said, it should be emphasised that the change was marginal and the balance of consumer thinking on the Irish economy remains strongly of the view that the Irish economy will weaken rather than strengthen in the year ahead,” Mr Hughes said.

Three-speed Irish economy

The outlook for jobs improved during the month but consumers still think there will be a weaker job market in 2026.

When it comes to the longer-term outlook, Irish consumers are a bit more pessimistic about the economy.

The survey asked participants to assess the longer-term prospects for the Irish economy and their own personal financial circumstances. This is the fifth consecutive year that the survey has asked a question on this topic.

“There has been a persistent decline in the share of consumers expecting the Irish economy to be stronger in five years’ time and a similarly consistent if smaller increase in the share of consumers who expect it to be weaker,” Mr Hughes said.

A quarter of people, 25%, now expect the economy to be stronger in five years' time. This is down from the 47% recorded in 2022 and the 29% recorded last year.

In addition, 30% said the economy will be in a similar position in five years time and a further 39% said that they expect it to be weaker — up from 22% in 2022 and 38% last year.

A similar trend was seen in people’s expectations for their own household finances over the next five years with a decline in people expecting it to be stronger, down to 31% from 34% last year. A further 33% said they expect it to be similar and 32% said they now expect it to be weaker.

“It seems there is a three-speed Irish economy when it comes to how consumers see their household incomes evolving. Roughly equal amounts of consumers see their incomes being higher, lower, and similar to today in five years’ time,” Mr Hughes said.