Anthony Foley: Climate change measures will be tougher than many wish to believe

Some sectors of the economy will be under threat and we need to be more precise about future economic impacts

Dealing with climate change is one of several serious economic and social problems facing Ireland over the coming years.

There are other concerns including housing, healthcare, aging, and immigration and integration that have to be tackled in a world that is less stable than in the recent past.

The Government’s National Risk Assessment for 2023 describes the environmental risks as being among the most diverse and complex and that climate change and the loss of biodiversity are the biggest challenges facing the world.

People recognise the problem

The first step in dealing with an issue is its recognition by policymakers and individuals, and this has been done. Opinion polls show that climate change and the environment are of major concerns to the Irish public, and many believe Government should do more.

The Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change in the Irish Mind survey showed 78% of people know at least something about climate change, and large majorities believe climate change is happening, that it is caused by human behaviour, and that future generations will be harmed by climate change.

Large majorities also say that climate change is important to them personally, and believe that Ireland has a responsibility to act on climate change. Only 12% think that Ireland is too small to make a difference on climate change, and most people either say the issue is of “very high” or of “high” priority for Government.

Survey results replicated across EU

The Irish results are replicated across the European Union. 

In the 2023 Eurobarometer survey on climate change, 77% of people say climate change is a very serious problem, and majorities say that the EU Commission, national governments, and business and industry are responsible for tackling climate change.

Only 35% of people in the survey hold themselves personally responsible.

More than eight in 10 respondents in the EU survey think it is important that their national government and the European Commission take action to improve energy efficiency by 2030; a majority of EU citizens had taken some action to fight climate change in the recent past; and a majority iterated that their national governments were not doing enough to tackle climate change, according to the survey.

Acceptance of climate policy measures

All this might suggest that there would be a willing acceptance at the personal level for climate policy measures. However, the EPA survey reported a weakening in support for so-called “nasty” measures such as bans on peat, coal, and home heating oil, as well as for higher taxes on petrol and diesel cars.

There was strong support for government “giveaways”, with large majorities favouring grants for heating systems and for spending on public transport rather than on motorways, as well as for increased grants for electric cars, and for growing more forests in their local areas to offset emissions from agriculture. However, only 58% of those surveyed supported reducing the size of the national cattle herd.

What, I wonder, would be the level of public support for the “nasty” climate action policies?

Limited support for 'nasty' measures 

Significant tax or regulatory measures might include policies to reduce the use of the internet, social media, and mobile phones, as well curtailing air travel and the number of flights at airports and imposing restrictions on the night-time economy to reduce energy consumption.

Other “nasty” measures could include the hosting of major sports events in daylight hours to avoid the use of floodlights; a 10% income tax surcharge to finance national and international climate change plans, and road pricing and limiting road usage, in addition to the growing urban restrictions.

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However, a 2022/23 European Investment Bank climate survey indicates substantial support for tough personal behaviour measures, with a small majority favouring limiting the amount of meat and dairy products that people can buy.

The survey also found a majority favour a carbon budget allocated to individuals with a fixed number of yearly credits on items such as the number of flights that have a big carbon footprint.

Climate action targets being missed

The Government has progressed its climate change policy framework, and the issue now is to achieve the climate targets.

Unfortunately, Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment published by the EPA identified limited progress on the targets.

Most Irish people expect that measures to deal with climate change will improve economic growth and provide new jobs, but about a quarter of the survey expect climate policies will lower economic growth and reduce jobs.

New jobs will emerge from retrofitting, infrastructure for wind and wave energy, flood defences, and climate-related services and technology enterprises.

But, as seen in recent discussion about the capacity of Dublin Airport, some sectors are under threat.

We can be sure there will be both losers and winners in the process. We can succeed but, overall, it will be tougher on the economy, sectors, and individuals than we probably wish to believe currently.

• Anthony Foley is emeritus associate professor of economics at Dublin City University Business School