Ukraine economy 'to shrink by 20% this year before bouncing back' if ceasefire struck soon

“The war is happening on territories that produce 60% of Ukrainian GDP,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said

The city market after being damaged by night shelling in Chernihiv, Ukraine, on Wednesday, March 30.

Ukraine’s economy will shrink by a fifth this year before bouncing back in 2023, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, or the EBRD, under a scenario where a ceasefire is brokered in a couple of months.

The forecast is subject to major downside risks “should hostilities escalate or should exports of gas or other commodities from Russia become restricted”, the EBRD said in its biannual Regional Economic Update.