John Whelan: Irish transport faces the hard Cop26 road
Road freight is the essential to the Irish economy, but it burns up a major part of all the diesel Ireland imports, and activity is projected to more than double by 2050 from the 2015 baseline. Stock Picture: Larry Cummins
As the 26th UN Climate Change Conference — more commonly known as Cop26 — gets underway in Glasgow, countries are being asked to come forward with ambitious 2030 emissions reductions targets that align with reaching net zero by the middle of the century.
Of particular interest and concern to Ireland will be any changes in policies to ramp up targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and transport. These two sectors combined account for over half of emissions in Ireland, well above the global average. Both sectors are pivotal to our export industry, but they are also two of the hardest sectors to decarbonise.
The vast majority of our agricultural and manufactured goods get to their market destinations by road and sea freight, with road being the fastest growing greenhouse gas emitter.
Transport is one of the main sectors responsible for climate change. It accounts for close to one quarter of energy-related emissions. And unlike other sectors, it has not yet succeeded in reducing its carbon intensity.
Road freight is a backbone of the Irish economy, irreplaceable for moving goods. But it burns a large part of all diesel produced and rising. Most of the global net increase in diesel use since 2000 has come from road freight. And road freight activity is set to more than double by 2050 from the 2015 baseline.
The difficulty for the transport industry is that this will offset any expected reductions they will get from new technology trucks. This will lead to an increase in emissions by 2050, not a reduction.
But cost-effective alternatives are still lacking. Diesel-powered heavy goods vehicles offers a level of flexibility and accessibility. To reach climate targets, zero-emissions fuels for trucks would need to be in general use well in advance of 2050.
Given the current state of research and commercial deployment, none of the known zero-emissions truck fuels will see widespread use in the short to medium term.
Airlines, key for Ireland's international businesses, are promoting various alternative fuels, including biofuels. Some biofuels show promise, but without strict standards, may be counterproductive, and make global warming worse.
The shipping industry, a much smaller greenhouse gas emitter, has also explored alternative fuels to diesel. Natural gas (LNG) tops the poll, and other new technology fuels such as dimethyl ether (DME) have also been explored, but are not yet produced at large scale.
The OECD’s International Transport Forum last October warned that climate change cannot be stopped without decarbonising transport.
It went on to emphasise that the Paris Climate Agreement requiring vehicle manufacturers to meet their targets. It is expected that Cop26 will recommend stricter targets, with penalties imposed.
Rapid economic growth in Ireland combined with the legacy of Covid that has increased demand for home deliveries, as well as international traffic re-routing because of Brexit, will lead to an increase in traffic.
Decarbonising transport in Ireland will need extensive investments by industry and the Government.
Much will depend on future breakthroughs in advanced biofuels, synthetic renewable fuels, and battery technology.
The transport and export industry will be watching with mixed feelings the Cop26 gathering, hoping it can deliver policies on zero emission fuels for trucks, ships, and aeroplanes.
• John Whelan is a consultant on Irish and international trade
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