US internet growth to slow gradually

Over time, growth rates in US internet users and usage will see a "gradual" slowdown given the high number of US internet users, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker, who continues to believe that international growth will be stronger than US growth.

Jupiter Media Metrix reported a record 104.811 million US internet users in November - a rise of 29% from a year ago and up 3% from October.

"We continue to believe that international user/usage growth will be stronger than US growth," Meeker said, noting the majority of internet users are outside of the US.

The analyst said the latest data from Media Metrix supports her thesis that Sept 11 "may have been the inflection point for internet user/usage growth".

Citing data from the US Census Department, Meeker said the latest data implies around 38% of the US population went online during November.

The sites of the "big three" internet properties - AOL Time Warner Inc, Microsoft Inc and Yahoo! Inc - accounted for 45% of total US internet usage, down from 50% the prior month, she said.

AOL's share of unique visitors fell in November to 27% from 34% the prior month due to a 19% decline in minutes used per person, Meeker noted.

She expects continued "strong" user growth for both Amazon.com Inc and eBay Inc in December.

Commenting on the data, Meeker said: "We are careful not to view Media Metrix results as perfectly accurate - samples analysed in this report do not include non-US users, the 'at work' sample is not as robust as the 'at home' sample and some internet companies have reported significant discrepancies between their internal log files and Media Metrix traffic reports."

"Nonetheless, we do believe that Media Metrix results are reasonably consistent and thus meaningful for broad analysis."