Exports continue to surge despite blip

Ireland’s trade balance is expected to show a first increase in five years, this year, as the broad-based recovery in export performance continues.

That is despite preliminary CSO figures yesterday showing a 5%/€437m month-on-month dip in export value, to just over €9bn for May; which — when coupled with a 4% increase in import value — resulted in a 14% fall in the seasonally-adjusted trade surplus to €3.97bn. However, on a year-on-year unadjusted basis, export value jumped 8% in May – an increase of €673m to just over €8.8bn.

Pharmaceutical and medical products drove May’s figures; but the CSO also noted that the latest data was affected by a revision/re-valuing of its calculations. This particularly affected aircraft-related trade.

“The bigger picture is that Irish exports have expanded at a rapid pace in 2015,” noted Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers.

“In the year to May, goods exports equalled €44bn, up 18% from the €37.2bn recorded in 2014. True, the rebound has reflected the exceptional 31% rise in pharmaceutical exports; but even excluding pharmaceutical goods, exports have increased by 12.6%.

"Food exports are up 2.4% on the year, beverages 14.2%, manufactured goods 8.1% and machinery and transport equipment 17.3%,” he noted.

“Following several delays, Irish first quarter GDP data should finally be released next week.

"Other short-term indicators, on the health of the Irish economy, suggest the recovery has accelerated in the first half of 2015,” Mr MacCoille said.

According to Alan McQuaid, chief economist with Merrion Stockbrokers: “Ireland’s trade balance has fallen for the past four years, but this year it should increase for the first time since 2010.

"Based on the official revised trade figures, from the CSO, the surplus last year is now put at €32.257bn. The overall surplus, in 2015 is, in our view, likely to be close on €40bn.”

The latest CSO data shows that exports in May to the US, our biggest single export market, grew by 29%. Exports to Belgium rose by 16%, while those to The Netherlands were up 12%.

Exports to Germany increased by 11% and those to the UK were up by 7% compared to the same month last year.

“This continued positive trend in export figures is very welcome, with goods exports in the first five months of the year up 18% on the same period last year.

"With strong implementation of our plan, I am convinced we can continue to see progress until we achieve sustainable full employment in the coming years,” Jobs Minister, Richard Bruton said.