ICSA signals concerns over beef sector trends

History could repeat itself if increased calf births and a sharp fall in live exports drive down beef prices, ICSA beef chairman Edmond Phelan has warned.

Mr Phelan said that he is concerned at trends which show increased calf births for the early weeks of 2015. Coupled with the fall in live exports, fears of factory prices falling are starting to emerge.

“While the mart trade is flying at the moment for all grades of store cattle, I am concerned that the trends suggest that history is repeating itself all over again. Increased calf births and decreased live exports is a recipe for sharp price falls in 18-24 months’ time,” said Mr Phelan.

“Farmers need to be especially cautious with buying dairy calves because these will be only fit at a time when surplus cattle are most likely. It’s only 12 months ago that the surplus of dairy bull beef caused all sorts of havoc with the trade. At the very least, dairy-derived calves should be castrated to give some flexibility.”

The ICSA spokesman also said the risk of a super levy is leading to the retention of some calves on dairy farms. This, combined with price, is responsible for a 39% drop in calf exports so far in 2015. There has also been a sharp fall in weanling exports to Italy (-29%) albeit on small numbers at this time of year, he notes.

“To put it context, we have exported some 4,800 fewer calves, weanlings and stores compared to this time last year and an extra 90,000 calf births have been registered, including an extra 13,000 suckler births,” Mr Perry added.

The ICSA spokesman said it is still too early to be sure of trends.