Jump in imports pushes trade surplus down by 4%

Ireland’s trade surplus fell by 4% last year, according to preliminary figures published yesterday by the CSO.

An increase in overall export value by 2% — or just over €2bn (to €89.1bn) — coupled with a 7% jump in the value of imports to €53.6bn (the highest value level in six years) resulted in the trade surplus slipping from almost €37bn in 2013, to just under €35.5bn.

This was despite December showing the largest monthly surplus since last August, with a near €2bn improvement on November, to a total of just over €2.2bn.

Last year, the US, Britain, Belgium and Germany accounted for most of Ireland’s export trade; representing 55% of their combined value.

Alan McQuaid, chief economist with Merrion Stockbrokers, still expects a good showing this year, albeit in front of a more competitive backdrop.

“As regards 2015, it will be difficult to increase and actually maintain market share in an ever more competitive environment, even with the benefit of a weaker euro, though Irish exporters should continue to perform well on a relative basis. Although not as strong as 2014, we still see Irish exports of goods and services rising by a healthy 7% in volume terms this year.”

“The weak euro will be clearly beneficial for a country like Ireland, as will the close trading ties with both the US and UK, two of the better performers on the global economic stage in 2014. And the indications are these two key economies will perform well again in 2015. Against that, a lacklustre euroland outlook may take some of the shine off Irish export growth,” he added.

“The bigger picture is that Ireland’s trade performance improved in 2014,” noted Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy Stockbrokers.