Unemployment rate due to fall to 11% by end of year

The unemployment rate could fall to 11% by the end of this year if live register declines continue apace.

Latest CSO data, published yesterday, show that 4,400 fewer people were registered for unemployment benefits in June than the previous month; bringing the total number of people on the live register to a five-year low of 386,200.

The decline pushes the country’s unemployment rate down to 11.6% — a minor decrease from May’s level of 11.7%, but a significant year-on-year fall, from the 13.3% rate last June.

The June figures have been welcomed, but most commentators feel big challenges remain.

Alan McQuaid — chief economist with Merrion Stockbrokers — feels that unemployment should still show a drop from 13.1% to 11.6% this year, but could drop as low as 11% if things continue to improve at a strong pace.

“The unemployment rate remains the key indicator as far as the economy is concerned, and steady progress is being made in terms of bringing it down.

“We think that the level of unemployment will continue to fall over the course of 2014,” he said.

David McNamara, of Davy Stockbrokers said that the June numbers point to another solid quarter for employment growth, but said long-term unemployment remained “a major issue”, with numbers out of work for more than a year remaining “persistently high”.

The Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU), meanwhile, warned that Ireland’s jobless rate remains too high when judged against average EU rates.

“We need to grasp the fact that the numbers out of work in Ireland remain unacceptably and unsustainably high,” said general secretary, David Begg.

The National Youth Council of Ireland said it remained concerned about the number of young people on the live register, noting that the 61,448 people under the age of 25 represented a monthly increase of 2,932.