Investec predicts 2014 housing market recovery

As the Central Statistics Office reported the first fall in house prices in Dublin in almost a year, Investec Ireland published a major report forecasting that 2014 would be the year of the housing market recovery.

Prices fell 0.7% from December in Dublin, but values gained 6.3% from the year-earlier period. The price of residential properties in the rest of the country were unchanged in January compared with a fall of 1.6% the same time last year.

The Investec report entitled, “From stabilisation to recovery,” forecasts that the recovery in the Irish residential market will spread beyond the Greater Dublin Area, with rising prices set to be a feature of many urban areas, in 2014.

While the report is positive on the prospects of urban areas it cautioned that there would still be a fall in prices for rural areas.

“We see the country’s other major urban centres (Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford) following the lead set by the Greater Dublin Area in 2013 and experiencing price increases this year. The path of least resistance for prices in other areas remains down, given the problems of excess supply and weak economic fundamentals evident across rural Ireland,” the report stated.

The main driver of the increase in price in the urban areas will be the shortage of suitable properties as the surplus of built properties from the boom years gets used up.

As the property market corrects itself, Investec is predicting that the days of the local landlord are coming to an end. As the number of buy-to-let properties are transferred out of the hands of small investors and on to a new professional landlord.

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