Trade surplus up 32% to €4.3bn

Ireland’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus soared by 32% to just under €4.3bn in November — the third consecutive month where a rise was evident and the biggest increase since last August.

November’s surplus grew by more than €1bn to just over €4.28bn, on the back of a 7%, or €552m, rise in export value, coupled with an 11% drop in imports. The figures were outlined yesterday in new preliminary CSO data.

The latest surplus figure is the highest since August’s €4.88bn tally, which came on the back of a record monthly export performance, but also preceded a €2bn drop in surplus in September. However, the figure has been on the rise in each of the months since then.

Despite the November external trade data being stronger than expected, Ireland’s full-year trade surplus for 2012 is still likely to amount to around €43bn, largely unchanged on the previous year’s total.

“Irish export growth in 2012 looks set to be weaker than in 2011. We’re now forecasting a volume rise of 2.9% in goods and services, though pushing back up again to 4% in 2013 and 5.5% in 2014, all things being equal. However, overall growth may well be weaker than this if the patents issue drags on,” said Merrion Capital economist Alan McQuaid.

Philip O’Sullivan, chief economist with NCB Stockbrokers, suggested a 1.1% year-on-year export increase for the first 11 months of 2012, coupled with a 1.5% rise in imports, should produce a €40bn annual surplus, which he called “an impressive outturn” given current trading pressures.

On a year-on-year basis, November saw a 4% decline in the value of Irish exports to just under €8.3bn; with chemicals exports down €177m and medical/pharma products dropping by €774m (partially offset by an increase in the value of organic chemical exports of €427m).

In terms of locations, 56% of Irish exports went to the EU during the month, with the US the main non-EU destination, with an 18% share. Two-thirds of all imports came from the EU, with 35% from Britain.

Eurozone-bound exports from Ireland were up 2.5% in the 11 months, but there was a 16.5% fall in the level of Irish exports to the US and a 0.7% year-on-year fall in Irish goods going to the developing Bric nations.