Output increases mean EU must preserve emissions level, says ESRI

Ireland should make a case at the EU level for the development of a special mechanism for managing agricultural emissions, according to John Curtis, environmental economist with the ESRI.

He said Ireland’s plans to increase milk output by 50% and beef by 40% could increase emissions by 1m tonnes per annum. These output goals are detailed in Food Harvest 2020, the cross-sector report outlining agri-food growth ambitions.

Dr Curtis said: “Emissions from agriculture are currently 18.7m tonnes, or 30% of the national total. Agriculture emissions have fallen by 2% in the last decade but Food Harvest 2020 could reverse that.

“If climate policies curtail Irish milk and beef expansion, production will then move to places like Brazil leading to no global environmental benefit. Pres-erving emissions-efficient production within Europe would clearly be preferable.”

Dr Curtis outlined this analysis at the recent Agricultural Science Association conference. Managing the environmental impact of agri-food expansion was a key theme of the conference, as it is generally for EU analysis of the sector’s growth.

“Ireland has a comparative advantage in milk and beef production,” said Dr Curtis. “However, the current mechanism for managing emissions within the sector is a threat to realising those benefits.”

In terms of managing water quality, Dr Curtis said increasing milk output by 50% will lead to an extra 22,000 tonnes of excreted nitrogen per annum, and thus an exacerbation of water quality problems.

“The establishment of a system to verify implemen-tation of best practice for nutrient management within agriculture would assist expansion while protecting environmental quality,” said Dr Curtis.

Meanwhile, Thad Lively of the US Meat Export Federation in Denver, US, also noted that global demand for beef products is projected to soar in a number of rapidly developing world markets.

Increased consumption in countries in the Middle and Far East, Africa, and South America is driving the global growth in beef.

“The global beef market is growing rapidly and production in countries that are seeing the most growth is not keeping up with consumption,” he said. “This creates opportunities for traditional exporting countries where in general consumption is declining.”

Mr Lively added that intensive beef production practices result in fewer carbon emissions. In more extensive beef production systems, such as are operated in Brazil, the level of emission is 20kg carbon dioxide equivalent per kg of beef carcass.

“The equivalent figure for intensive grazing systems is 14kg, and 12kg for intensive grazing with feedlot finishing,” said Mr Lively. “Intensive production uses less land, water, fertiliser, and energy to produce the same amount of beef.”

Mr Lively added that while the global beef market is growing, market access restrictions are distorting trade and limiting overall growth.