‘Difficult’ year ahead for exports

A MILD recovery in exports will not translate into jobs, according to reports released by the Irish Exporters Association (IEA) and National Irish Bank (NIB).

With 2010 and 2011 exports rebounding from the declines of 2008 and 2009, the NIB’s quarterly FDI report for winter 2011 predicts Irish export growth of 4.5% in 2012, but expects any export-led employment lift to be less than NIB’s 2011 forecast of between 5,000 and 8,000 jobs.

NIB chief economist Ronnie O’Toole said: “European markets represent 60% of Irish exports, although they are expected to only grow 0.3% in 2012. Next year will be a more difficult year in terms of exports.

“However the improvements in competitiveness over recent years coupled with Ireland’s relatively ‘recession proof’ export mix should still allow for a reasonable level of export growth next year.”

Meanwhile, the IEA’s export figures show Ireland grew its merchandise exports by 5.8% to a €88.3 billion overall value in 2010. Imports were up just 1.6% at €44.4bn, giving an all-time record trade surplus of €43.9bn.

Releasing the IEA’s Trade and Transport Analysis report at the Port of Cork’s Custom House offices yesterday, author Patrick Daly of Alba Consulting noted that oil prices soaring from $80 (€61) to $110 per barrel during 2010 had a significant impact upon Ireland’s trading scores.

Pharma, chemicals and medical goods dominated goods traded across sea, air and road transport. All core sectors showed increases in exports, but with import trade to Ireland falling in a stark contrast, with Dublin Port faring worse than Cork.

IEA chief executive John Whelan said: “While the export growth has been in the services side with companies like Google and Facebook, Ireland also needs to the balance of growth in manufacturing. We have taken our eye off the ball in terms of manufacturing for a decade.

“Balancing the books is important, but the economy really need jobs in manufacturing. There are about 140,000 jobs in indigenous Irish manufacturing and another 150,000 jobs with multinationals. Half of those are services, half manufacturing.

“The IMF plan from here to 2015 is for Irish exports to create 35,000 indigenous manufacturing jobs, 35,000 jobs in multinationals and another 70,000 jobs indirectly. But, if we can’t get our manufacturing side going, we won’t get those jobs.”

Mr Whelan urged the Government to focus on strategies which would promote growth on the volume side, covering road and sea transport and boosting jobs.

He also proposed that the Government reconsider introducing a diesel special user rebate scheme.