‘Ireland will hit 2020 food targets at expense of greenhouse gas cuts’

IRELAND will reach most of its 2020 food output expansion targets, but this growth will make greenhouse gas reductions unachievable, according to new analysis from Teagasc.

The national food development authority yesterday rolled out a series of sectoral road maps predicting outputs by 2018 for dairy, suckler beef, pigs, sheep, tillage, forestry, horticulture, food and the environment.

In broad terms the food sectors seem to be on track to meet the expansion targets detailed in the Government’s Food Harvest 2020 report. Food’s success will mean extra fuels, energy and machinery production hours.

Teagasc director Prof Gerry Boyle told attendees at the Road Maps 2018 conference in Dublin that further greenhouse gas cuts of -16% per kg of milk were achievable, but Ireland will fall well short of the overall -20% reduction target set by the EU.

“There are clear opportunities for the Irish agriculture and food sector to grow and develop in the coming years, while providing a sustainable income for farmers and maintaining and protecting the environment.”

Teagasc’s latest projections also take into account the EU’s abolition of milk quotas in April 2015. Dairy cow numbers will increase by 25% to 1.38m by 2018, with milk production up 43% to over 7.1m tonnes. Dairy farm numbers will decline to 15,500 farmers (-11%).

The Teagasc research also projects positives for the troubled pigmeat sector, with Irish production to rise to 4.8m head and global demand also set to increase. Against this, feed costs will also continue to rise.

Sheep production, which is now largely reduced to a secondary role in most farms, is also set to recover. Forestry demand will also grow, from which the Teagasc experts urged local authorities to be more proactive in helping to develop local businesses to harness the potential profits.

Dr Tom Kelly, Teagasc director of knowledge transfer, said: “In all the major enterprises, high output from cost efficient production is required to meet the targets. Growth opportunities exist in the dairy sector, while there are opportunities to add value in the beef sector. The decline in sheep numbers over the last decade will reverse with a slight growth in numbers. Despite the current difficulties in the pigs sector due to high feed prices, it’s expected that there will be opportunities to grow Irish pigmeat production in the future.”

Head of the crops, environment and land use programme in Teagasc, Dr Noel Culleton said: “The medium-term outlook for the cereal sector is positive and the area of bioenergy crops is expected to increase to reduce Ireland’s dependence on energy imports.”