ESRI outlines paths to recovery

UNCERTAINTIES over global markets and the cost of the banking bailout have led the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) to serve up two possible recovery scenarios for the Irish economy, neither of them particularly appetising.

In the more optimistic high growth scenario, a surge in exports could drive a vigorous recovery somewhere between 2012 and 2015. In the low growth scenario, lower output would see unemployment and higher structural budget deficits continue far longer.

ESRI research professor John FitzGerald said: “The first time we served up two possible scenarios was in 1991, and the media didn’t like it then either. There is no one simple answer to the questions people are asking.