Chances of a world trade deal next year 60-40, predicts Irish EU official

THERE is about a 60-40 chance of a world trade deal being agreed next year, a top European Union official has predicted.

However, the trade official, Irishman David O’Sullivan, also said that he had not given up hopes of reaching an agreement this year.

“If we can’t do a global deal on trade how do you think we are going to do a global deal on climate change?” he asked.

Mr O’Sullivan was speaking with Irish agricultural journalists in Brussels on the prospects of the 153-member World Trade Organisation reaching agreement.

The talks, which began in 2001 and collapsed in 2008, have focused on dismantling obstacles to trade for poor nations by aiming for a deal that would cut agriculture subsidies and tariffs on industrial goods.

Under those proposals, Europe and the United States would open up their markets to agricultural trade and in exchange would get better access for manufacturers and service-providers in markets such as China and India.

Meanwhile, the WTO has said that too many gaps remain in the ongoing discussions to bring ministers to Geneva this month to give a political push towards a deal.

Director General Pascal Lamy said WTO member states would take stock at the end of March on progress made in the marathon talks.

A decision on whether a deal could be completed this year, as called for repeatedly by leaders in the G20 summit and other forums, was a political question and would have to be taken by ministers.

“Given where we are right now, it is also clear, however, that the end of March is too early for that,” he said.