Cowen needs to do much more than speak well
His rallying call played well with the 300 business people in attendance and, according to one account, the standing ovation was prolonged.
It was important the Taoiseach stepped up to the plate to let the business sector know he had not lost the bottle for the fight.
That was a real fear that needed to be assuaged.
And it is fair to say he gave some succour to business people who are deeply troubled about the future of their own businesses and the ability of the country to survive this crisis.
His call to action and for us all to pull together did not play as well with those who have lost their jobs as many texts to the Pat Kenny show yesterday morning revealed, which was hardly surprising.
It’s probably fair to say his stock with the public sector did not increase either following his decision to go ahead with the €2 billion cost savings.
His stance on Thursday night thankfully showed he was still in the ring and on his feet and prepared to slug it out until this economy has been stabilised.
Hopefully, we will get beyond our obsession with Brian Cowen and address the real fears of people, which is that this economy is in such a state of meltdown the IMF might eventually be imposed on us.
At best some sceptics feel we could be looking at the nationalisation of Bank of Ireland and possibly AIB if, as some analysts fear, the extent of their property debts become so bad they will not be able to raise debt or repay their existing liabilities.
That prospect has just been raised in a new analysis by Davy Research who pointed out the risk of Bank of Ireland being nationalised down the line was as high as 25%.
Likening Brian Cowen’s speech to a Barack Obama performance, as one person present at the dinner reportedly did on the night, is not going to get us over that hump or any of the other many problems threatening to engulf us.
The €288 million losses taken up front by National Irish Bank are further testimony to the fact that the Irish banks are still in denial about the extent of their property losses. Reaction to NIB’s huge writedown of loans has been swift.
Deutsche Bank said yesterday the banks could possibly need a further €3bn in capital on top of the €3.5bn already proposed under the Government’s plan.
That is the scenario they face, said Deutsche, if current loan loss trends persist.
There is a real danger loan loss impairments at Ireland’s two largest lenders will be worse than forecast, echoing niggling fears among some Irish analysts that the banks here will struggle to remain independent.
Share prices of both are close to the floor in advance of the expected recapitalisation plan form Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.
Few brokers are suggesting the bank share prices will improve following the announcement.
It looks as if shareholders will be forced to wait up to seven years before they can start looking for a dividend or to either bank being restored to their control.
This is a much bigger issue than just the Irish banks.
Despite the countless billions already put into the banking system businesses still cannot get as much as a cent from their local banks.
Central banks in the US and in Britain are now lending directly to try to counter that particular malaise.
Recently the Irish Central Bank said money being made available by the ECB to be used for funding Europe’s commercial needs, is going back on over night deposit, because banks don’t have willing borrowers or else they are simply so afraid of the risks involved.
In that sense neither the recapitalisation of the two banks nor rallying calls from the Taoiseach will not dig us out of this dark hole.
In his remarks the Taoiseach did refer to the “can do” attitude of Irish people that will help us pull through this crisis, but this may not be enough.
Concerns about the Taoiseach’s leadership qualities were running so deep that some were relieved he even acknowledged that there were people out there waiting to be inspired and to be led.
At least it was one small step in the right direction.
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