House building registrations continue to fall

HOUSE building registrations continued to weaken in May with a total of 1,419 units registered.

This compared with an average monthly total of 1,621 in the previous three months.

The annual figure to May was 61% lower year-on-year, showing a further fall from the figure of 53% at the end of April.

These latest statistics also reveal that the regions are suffering more from the housing slump than the greater Dublin area.

Goodbody Stockbrokers reckon that just 35,000 houses will be completed in 2009, against an estimated 48,000 units in the current year, based on the registration figures.

Other forecasts are in the same range, while economists say registrations will need to pick up if we are to see 40,000 completions in 2009.

Regionally, however, significant variations remain. In the six months to May, registrations declined 48% year-on-year in Dublin, while in the greater Dublin area the number of housing units registered fell by 52% over the same period.

These areas appear to have held up relatively better than some regional locations, further underlying the view that the oversupply and building outlook is affecting the regions far more, said Deirdre Ryan, economist with Goodbody.

In the six months to May, registrations in Connacht fell 66%, against 68% in Munster.

While the pace of decline continues to deepen there are signs things may have bottomed out, she said.

Trends over the last three months give some “tentative evidence registrations may have found a stabilisation point, if at a very low level”.

These figures are based on the Premier housing registrations data, following those from Homebond last week, which gives a full update of the housing outlook.

The projected competition figures contrast sharply with completions during the boom years.

In 2006 a record 93,419 houses and apartments were built. That was twice the 1999 level and was also the 13th consecutive annual increase.

But the slowdown and the credit crunch brought that sequence to an end last year, when house completions dipped to just over 78,000.

Meanwhile, property tracking website DaftWatch reported there are now 70,000 houses listed for sale on Daft.ie, up from 16,000 in September 2006.