Growth will peak at end of year

Economic growth will peak in the final three months of this year before settling back to more normal levels in 2005, research suggested yesterday.

The NTC Leading Indicator - a gauge of recent statistics to provide a longer-term forecast on the British economy - posted a reading of 99.6 in July, down for the fifth successive month and the lowest level since January 2001.

Research group NTC said the data continued to suggest that the latest upturn in the UK business cycle will “peak at some point in the fourth quarter of 2004, before turning down towards its long term trend in the first months of 2005.”