David McNamara: AI's unprecedented impact eclipses Trump's trade war

While US tariffs had a limited impact on businesses, there are signs AI sectors most exposed to AI replacement have seen job losses, while graduates are experiencing a more challenging labour market

US president Donald Trump announcing new tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House last April. Picture: AP /Mark Schiefelbein

Mon, 05 Jan, 2026 - 15:08

David McNamara

David McNamara is the Group Chief Economist at AIB responsible for leading the bank's macroeconomic analysis and provide insights for both national and international stakeholders.

At the turn of the year, it is worth looking back at key market events in 2025. While the first half of the year was dominated by US president Donald Trump’s trade war, in the end, it paled in comparison to the impact of AI on both financial markets and the real economy.

On US tariffs, the impact appears to have been limited so far. Indeed, many of the threatened tariffs were subsequently reduced or shelved.