John Whelan: Years after Brexit, Irish food sector faces even more volatility due to Trump

However there are positive signs that the UK is back on the radar of an increasing number of exporters.

Brexit created problems for exporters but volatility from the Trump administration has made it a much more complex picture. 

When the UK left the EU in January 2020, many Irish companies bypassed the UK, particularly those in the agri-food sector. Many headed straight for mainland Europe, others for the Middle East, US, and Asia.

But many others persisted with their established customers in the UK and only survived through determination, perseverance, or, in some cases, a total redesign of their supply chain.

Fast forward to 2025 — and even before the UK-EU landmark joint announcement to scrap some of the most arduous customs regulations —and we are witnessing positive signs that the UK is back on the radar of an increasing number of exporters.

However, in the five years since Brexit, the pecking order of Ireland’s exports has shifted away from the UK, which fell from being our second-largest country market, behind the US, to third place, behind the Netherlands. This reflects a greater focus on building markets across the EU and further afield.

Surprisingly, despite the decline and the slow recovery of the British market, the Northern Ireland cross-border trade hit a new high of €10.5bn in the 12 months to December 2024, showing a massive, 284% increase over the five-year period since Brexit.

Britain and Northern Ireland have traditionally been our largest agri-food market, but Brexit has been particularly tough on businesses in the sector. Agri-food export sales to the British market have been fairly static in the period since Brexit, with sales increasing from €4bn in 2019 to €4.1bn in 2024.

Unionists will see the trade growth of Northern Ireland as vindication of their demands for the Windsor Framework, but the agri-food businesses is still crippled with regulatory paperwork and inspections and will be urging the UK government to wrap up the proposed new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement as soon as possible.

The agreement, when implemented, is expected to provide a range of benefits, including the removal of export health certificates, saving businesses up to €250 per consignment each time goods are sent either from Britain or across the border. A single truck carrying a mixed load of animal and vegetable products could see a €1,000 reduction in costs.

For example, a lasagne containing mincemeat, tomato sauce, and wheat pasta currently requires plant certificates and animal certificates and inspections for shipment. These will be eliminated under the new agreement.

The agri-food exporters were, however, making significant inroads into other markets, growing exports from €9.5bn pre-Brexit to €11.1bn in 2024. Some of the growth came from a buoyant US market, which grew 14% to approximately €2bn. Drink exports grew by nearly a quarter, while exports of dairy were estimated to be up 4%, at €840m.

However, exporters see storm clouds ahead, following the US tariff imposition of 15% on agri-food and drinks exports from the EU, which clearly will have significant negative impact on Irish businesses trading with the US.

The UK free trade agreement with Australia and New Zealand, now in force, will also lead to increased competition for Irish exporters.

For example, cheddar imports from New Zealand for the year to August 2024 stood at 8,000 tonnes, capturing a 3% share of UK cheese imports in one year.

As there is no demand for cheddar across the EU other than the UK, this will be a severe blow to the sales of several Irish exporters, Ornua being a prominent one (it is known for Kerrygold and Pilgrims Choice brands). Other notable cheese exporters include Dairygold and Carbery.

With 90% of Irish dairy, beef, and sheep output exported, stable fair trade agreements remain crucial for the sector’s future. 

Brexit created wide-ranging problems for Irish exporters. However, the volatility being created by the Trump administration has ballooned in to a much more complex picture for all businesses trading internationally.

Irish industry is now anticipating greater price volatility than created by Brexit and decreased market access across the globe.