US midterm elections: Six reasons Democrats may fall short of expected gains
People vote during the midterm elections early in the day at the Brooklyn Museum in New York on November 3, 2026. (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images)
US president Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, voter concerns over high prices and dissatisfaction with the war in Iran have led many analysts and opinion polls to predict significant Democratic gains in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
However, six analysts and party strategists told that several factors could prevent Democrats from turning those favourable political conditions into a landslide, even if the party ultimately makes gains in Congress.
Recent opinion polls have shown Democrats becoming increasingly competitive in previously reliably Republican seats, while the party has expanded its efforts into Trump’s conservative heartland.
Democrats are widely expected to have a strong election night, but the scale of any victory remains uncertain.
Here are six reasons Democrats may fall short of expectations.
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The number of competitive US House races has fallen sharply over the past three decades as partisan polarisation and redistricting, including gerrymandering, have made more seats safely Democratic or Republican.
As a result, analysts estimate that only about 40 to 50 of the House’s 435 seats are genuinely competitive this year.
Most expect Democrats to retake the lower chamber from Republicans, but with a majority of perhaps five to 20 seats, limiting the scope for gains like those in 2018, when Democrats picked up 41 seats.
Bill Galston, a former White House adviser to president Bill Clinton, said that if Democrats gained even 25 House seats, “they'd have a working majority, but not a huge one”.
Such a majority would give Democrats control of the House but little room to manoeuvre, making it harder to pass contentious legislation or claim the sweeping mandate associated with previous wave elections.
While Democrats are favoured to make gains in the 100-member Senate, securing the net gain of four seats needed for a 51-49 majority remains far from certain, as many of their top targets are in states Trump carried by wide margins in 2024.
David Wasserman, an elections analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Democrats must make breakthroughs in states Trump carried by double digits. Even a national swing of 10 percentage points towards Democrats would probably leave the party two seats short of a majority, he said.
Democrats also face tougher-than-expected contests in states they had hoped would be safer, including Maine, New Hampshire and Michigan.
“Republicans are hanging very close in those races,” said Andrew Busch, a public policy professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and author of a history of midterm elections.
“That's not necessarily what you would expect if things were going well for Democrats across the board.”
Opinion polls show Democratic voters are more enthusiastic than Republicans, but strategists caution that Democratic constituencies such as young, Black and Hispanic voters have historically turned out at lower rates in midterm elections than in presidential years.
Surveys show persistent scepticism among these groups towards both parties, particularly over the cost of living. If turnout among those voters falls short of expectations, Democrats could underperform on election day, analysts said.
Early voting data in states that register voters by party showed higher Democratic engagement. However, Republicans argue that many of their supporters traditionally wait until election day to vote.
In the 2022 midterms, voters aged 50 and older made up nearly twice the share of the electorate as those under 50. In recent years, older voters have leaned Republican, according to exit poll surveys.
Republicans entered the final stretch of the campaign with a substantial financial advantage, although spending in key races has so far produced mixed results.
Republicans held a cash advantage of several hundred million dollars across their national party committees and major allied super PACs heading into the final weeks of the campaign, according to committee filings and Federal Election Commission data.
Trump spent more than $277 million, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, on a late television and direct-mail campaign to support struggling Republican candidates, according to Federal Election Commission data.
Tesla chief executive Elon Musk spent roughly $366 million during the midterm cycle, including $276 million since July, to support Republican candidates.
Republicans outspent Democrats by $188 million on advertising in Senate battleground states by the end of September, according to AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending.
“Any time you have one side with a big financial advantage and the ability to pour it into races at the last minute, it can tip the result of close races,” Busch said.
Opinion polls have frequently underestimated Republican support in recent election cycles.
Reuters/Ipsos polling shows registered voters favouring Democrats over Republicans by 47% to 35% on the congressional generic ballot.
The largest polling misses came when Trump was on the ballot. Although he is not standing in this year’s election, Trump has urged supporters to treat November’s vote as if he were.
Polls significantly understated Republican strength in the 2014 midterms, when the party secured a sweeping Senate victory. However, midterm polls in 2022 underestimated how well Democrats would perform.
Trump and many Republican candidates have sought to portray Democrats as socialists and extremists who pose an existential threat to the country.
Democrats in competitive races are increasingly declaring themselves proud capitalists, concerned that Republican attacks could sway critical independent voters.
Republicans are highlighting victories by members of the Democratic Socialists of America movement and progressive candidates in Democratic primaries to portray the entire party as socialist, even though fewer than two dozen such candidates won this year.
Galston said the attacks could resonate with some wavering voters and influence close races.
“It might be effective at the margins,” Galston said. “It could reduce the Democratic advantage by one or two points in the close races.”
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