Reform UK hails ‘historic change’ but pollster warns of peak in support

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was in a bullish mood (Yui Mok/PA)

A jubilant Nigel Farage heralded “historic change in British politics” as he suggested local election results showed Reform UK was on course for a general election victory.

While many local election results are still to be declared, there appears to be convincing evidence to justify Reform UK’s bullish mood.

Based on results so far, Bookmakers William Hill has Nigel Farage’s party odds-on at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next general election.

The party has so far gained 423 councillors, compared to losses of 269 for Labour and 183 for the Conservatives.

Numbers for the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are in the positive but at a low level compared to Reform, with gains of 32 and 42 respectively.

But beyond the headline numbers, it matters where losses and gains are made, with both Labour and the Conservatives now vulnerable in traditional heartlands that previously shored up an entrenched two-party dominance.

Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to carry on as Prime Minister despite widespread losses in the local elections (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

Reform has already made significant gains at the expense of both parties.

Labour was defending 17 seats in Tameside in Greater Manchester, which forms part of former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner’s constituency of Ashton-under-Lyne.

The party has lost 16 of those seats to Reform and lost control of the council.

Labour has also lost control of Hartlepool, Redditch and Tamworth as support for Reform surged.

Nigel Farage’s party has also gained control of Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Conservatives, with potential gains in Tory-dominated shire counties when results are declared later on Friday.

The geographical spread of Reform’s successes, which also includes gains in Dudley, Southampton and Plymouth, is viewed as significant evidence of how the party may perform at a general election.

Because (Reform) are winning support across the country, that is the activist base that forms the campaigning base for when you are trying to win parliamentary seats

Keiran Pedley, politics director at Ipsos, told the Press Association: “Reform has only been a national party for a couple of years, and so we’re always looking for evidence that they are the real deal in terms of a potential governing party in the UK.

“I think what we are seeing in these results is because they are winning support across the country, that is the activist base that forms the campaigning base for when you are trying to win parliamentary seats in a future general election.

“The fact that they are winning convincingly against Labour across the north of England is highly significant. But I think what is really important too is that they are gaining not just there, but across the country as well.”

While support for Reform remains dominant in areas which voted to leave the European Union, a more mixed picture may emerge as results are declared in the rest of London and places where the party is not so popular, Mr Pedley added.

In addition to this emphasis on potentially less impressive results to come for Reform, evidence based on current results is said to suggest the party’s confidence may be premature.

Pollster Peter Kellner said Reform is likely to end up with well over 1,000 seats gained, but added there is already cause for Nigel Farage to be “privately worried”.

Writing on Substack, Mr Kellner said: “In last year’s local elections Reform won 41% of all seats contested across England.

It seems clear that Reform has peaked

“On the basis of the overnight figures, this year’s tally is around 33%.

“If there were no polls, and there had been no elections last year, this year’s figure would be astonishing.

“But we do have the record on recent polls and elections, and it seems clear that Reform has peaked.”

He added: “Under first-past-the-post, this matters. Our voting system helped Reform last year, when it won a much higher proportion of seats than votes.

“Its support is now at the point where that bonus has started to shrink. If more voters desert the party, it could suffer badly – falling short in many councils and parliamentary seats that it would have won last year.”

Mr Kellner also said Labour has “cause for relief” despite losing half the seats it was defending.

He added: “it’s bad – and in normal times it would be catastrophic – but it is not as bad as its record in local government over the past 12 months, where it has lost three-quarters of the seats it was defending.”

Mr Kellner said while Labour lost all the seats it was defending in Wigan and Hartlepool, and all but one in Tameside, Dudley and Redditch, Labour’s support has held up better in areas where Reform is “weaker”.

- Press Association