Middle East latest: Trump says Iran war could be over soon but warns against oil disruption

Iraqis hold a portrait of the late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (Hadi Mizban/AP)

What happened overnight:

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said Tehran will not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if US-Israeli attacks continue. Trump then threatened to hit the Islamic Republic far harder if it stopped the flow of oil in the vital Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that it would “determine the end of the war”, after Trump earlier said the conflict would end “soon”.
• Oil prices surged by 20% to a four-year high before coming back down below $90 a barrel after Trump’s suggestion that the war would end soon. Iran earlier mocked the US over the rocketing oil price, branding its campaign “Operation Epic Mistake”.
• Trump twice declined to say whether or not Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei had a target on his back, saying only that he was “disappointed” and thought he was “going to lead to just more of the same problem for the country”. It came after a day of Trump being dismissive of the late ayatollah’s son – saying his selection was a “big mistake” – and reiterating that Trump still wants to be involved in the selection of a leader. Israel, meanwhile, has openly vowed to target the new supreme leader.
• Large crowds took to the streets in Tehran in a defiant show of support for Khamenei.
• Israel launched its second wave of strikes today against Tehran. The Israeli military claimed it had started a broad wave of strikes against “terror targets” in the Iranian capital, but it has been hitting critical energy and fuel infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians.
• Israel also pressed its offensive against Hezbollah with raids in southern Lebanon and airstrikes in Beirut. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 486 people, including at least 83 children, since 2 March, Lebanese state news reported, citing the country’s health ministry. At least 600,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon, sparking fears of a humanitarian catastrophe.
• Fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks also targeted Israel, US bases across the Middle East and energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
• British Typhoon jets intercepted drones heading towards Jordan and Bahrain, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said.
• Turkey said Nato defences shot down a ballistic missile in its airspace, the second intercepted missile from Iran in a ​week.
• Five female Iranian footballers have been granted humanitarian visas by Australia following an appeal from Trump to prime minister Anthony Albanese.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the war against Iran may be short-lived, despite the country’s selection of a new hardline supreme leader to oversee the fight for the Islamic theocracy’s survival.

But moments later, Mr Trump hinted during a news conference that the worst fighting could still be ahead as he threatened intensified action if Iran made any “attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply”.

The back-and-forth sent oil prices and stock markets see-sawing.

“We’re putting an end to all of this threat once and for all, and the result will be lower oil prices, oil and gas prices for American families,” Mr Trump said.

The war has choked off major supplies of oil and gas to world markets and sent fuel prices rising across the US.

The fighting has also led foreigners to flee from business hubs and prompted millions to seek shelter as bombs hit sites including military bases, government buildings, oil and water installations, hotels and at least one school.

The selection of hard-line Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as Iran’s supreme leader sent oil prices surging and markets sliding. Investors saw it as a signal that Iran was digging in, 10 days into the war launched by the United States and Israel.

Oil prices later fell and the US stock market closed higher after Mr Trump told a group of politicians at his golf club near Miami that the conflict may end soon.

“We took a little excursion” to the Middle East “to get rid of some evil. And, I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion,” he said.

Hours later, Mr Trump posted on social media: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”

In an apparent response to Mr Trump’s remarks published in Iranian state media, a spokesperson for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammad Naini, said: “Iran will determine when the war ends”.

Mr Trump also had a call on Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war and other issues.

Mr Putin’s foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said Mr Putin “voiced a few ideas regarding a quick political and diplomatic settlement” of the conflict following his conversations with Gulf leaders and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Donald Trump hinted during a news conference that the worst fighting could still be ahead (Mark Schiefelbein)

Mr Khamenei, a secretive 56-year-old cleric, is only the third supreme leader in the history of the Islamic Republic. He has close ties to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has been firing missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf Arab states since his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who had ruled since 1989, was killed during the war’s opening salvo.

More than 20 heavy explosions were heard in Tehran in what was considered the heaviest air raid on the capital since the war started on February 28. Iranian media did not report on damages and casualties.

Israel said on Monday that it was carrying out “a wide-scale wave of strikes” on the Iranian city of Isfahan, as well as Tehran and in southern Iran. The Israeli military said it hit dozens of infrastructure sites, including the drone headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard.

Meanwhile, Israel’s military said more missiles had been launched from Iran towards Israel late on Monday.

Mr Trump said the United States was nearing its goal to eliminate Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile and its ability to produce and launch them. The administration has offered shifting rationales and timelines since the start of the conflict.