As far-right support surges, what's next for France?
French President Emmanuel Macron. Picture: AP
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has won a historic victory in the first round of voting in France’s snap parliamentary elections.
The far-right party came first in the vote for the French National Assembly, drawing an unprecedented 12 million votes, almost eight million more than they acquired two years ago.
The results have brought its extremist politics closer to the gates of power than ever before.
Official results show that the RN received 33%.
The New Popular Front, the country’s left-wing alliance, also had a strong showing, taking 28% of the vote share. Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance trailed in third with 20%.
The results indicate a deep division in France. Thousands of people gathered in street demonstrations in Paris, Strasbourg, Lyon, Nantes and Lille against the far right.
Macron dissolved parliament just a few weeks ago to call this shock election, after his party suffered a devastating defeat by the far right during the European elections, with the National Rally bringing in 31% of the vote.
Although the president had reportedly been considering calling an election for months, the announcement came as a surprise even for some in his inner circle.
By the end of last week, the campaign was clearly wearing on Macron, who normally keeps a cool head.
On Friday, the president seemed to snap when asked by reporters about his opponents, pointing to the “arrogance” of the RN. It seems, however, that they were right to be confident.
Macron knew that calling a snap election was a major risk.
The far right is more popular in France than they have been in years; his approval ratings have hit record lows; and two years ago his party lost its parliamentary majority.
Critics have said that the gamble has allowed Le Pen and her party to build on the momentum from the European elections – while Macron’s allies have all but said that he is playing 4D chess.
The main reason that the president has given for calling this election, is that this is a moment for clarification: he was calling the public’s bluff on their decision to give so many votes to the far right in the European elections.
He was hoping that, when confronted with the reality of a far-right government, the French public would go the other way.
The other, more cynical, interpretation is that by allowing the National Rally to win, Macron can – as president – effectively control how they govern with the hope that people fall out of love with them before the next set of elections.
Even if this is all a part of some grand plan, there is no guarantee that things will work out in Macron’s favour in 2027, in the same way they didn’t three weeks ago or last night.
French elections are usually held every five years – the last one was in 2022, meaning that Macron did not have to dissolve parliament for three more years. There are 577 seats in the French parliament, and to have an absolute majority a party needs to obtain 289.
To elect MPs, French voters participate in a two-round simple majority system.
In the first round, a candidate must win a majority of votes with the support of at least 25% of registered voters – so turnout is crucial.
If a candidate wins a majority then they get the seat, but most votes go to a second round the following week.
This round includes the two highest scoring candidates, plus any others who collected at least 12.5% of total registered voters.
The candidate who gets the most votes wins.
A week of political bargaining is ahead for French politicians.
The results and unusually high turnout means there will likely be a record high number of three-way contests in the second round, which will lead to extraordinary levels of “frantic horse trading” that make it exceedingly difficult to accurately predict an outcome.
In the past, third parties have dropped out in areas
where the RN are in the lead to avoid splitting the vote.
Senior figures in the left wing NFP alliance have pledged that in any constituencies where their candidate is third and the RN are first, they would withdraw. Macron’s centrist camp has not been as generous or clear about what they plan to do in the same situation.
Far-right parties are in government already in half a dozen European countries, many of whom congratulated the RN and Le Pen on their initial victory.
Centrist and left-wing European parties will be watching closely and nervously at how events unfold over the course of the next week.
The situation is looking rather bleak for Macron, who looks like he will have to hand some control over to his political enemies.
After the second round results come in, Macron, as president, will pick the prime minister – who is usually from the winning party. If the prime minister and president are from different parties, the government enters a state of a “cohabitation”, which has only happened three times in post-war France.
“Macron is looking at just under three years in cohabitation either with a hostile government in the shape of a RN majority, possibly in coalition with centre-right MPs, or with a parliament that is so divided, fractious and fragmented that it’ll just be completely impossible for him to get anything done,” Jon says.
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