Zimbabwe hopes for change, but fears the worst

Zimbabwe is preparing for what many hope will be a landmark election on Saturday which will finally remove president Robert Mugabe from power.

But the optimism that his 28 year rule may be over is tempered by accusations that has has elaborate plans in place to rig the vote.

His time in power has seen the country collapse from food exporter to being dependent on international food handouts and money sent home by many of the 5 million people – more than a third of the population – who have fled Zimbabwe.

People long cowed into silence by Mugabe’s strong-arm methods are speaking openly against their leader, seeing the election as a last hope for the country where inflation is over 100,000% a year, by far the highest in the world.

“This election is about survival. ... about empty stomachs and health and education that we are not getting for our families,” said Elizabeth Chaibvu, a member of the Feminist Political Education Project.

But Mugabe is accused of stacking the decks against his opponents, redistricting voting constituencies, buying votes with gifts such as tractors, and delivering state-subsidised food only to his party supporters.

“Zimbabweans aren’t free to vote for the candidates of their choice,” watchdog group Human Rights Watch said last week.

Amnesty International alleged “intimidation, harassment and violence against perceived supporters of opposition candidates, with many in rural regions fearful that there will be retribution after the elections.”

The election is about more than just Zimbabwe. Many other African leaders, seeking in varying degrees to become democratic and put the days of coups and strongmen behind them, are torn about how to deal with Mugabe.

They cannot ignore Mugabe’s past as an icon of resistance to colonial rule, and they applaud when he claims that “the West still negates our sovereignties, by way of control of our resources, in the process making us mere chattels in our own lands.”

While the West has imposed limited sanctions, African governments have refrained from acting against Mugabe. Instead, led by neighbouring South Africa, they have sought to help make the election a success and give Mugabe a measure of respectability.

The fact that this fourth contested presidential election is going ahead, with multiple candidates, is a tribute to Zimbabweans’ democratic sinew, epitomised by Mugabe’s main opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai. The 55-year-old trade unionist has dealt Mugabe past electoral humiliations, and his battered face was flashed around the world after he was severely beaten by police last year.

Also running against him is Simba Makoni, 58, a former finance minister and member of Mugabe’s politburo until he was expelled for daring to challenge the leader. Makoni’s last-minute defection is a sign of growing dissent within Mugabe’s ruling Zimbabwe African National Union party. But while he could take support from Mugabe, Makoni also could divide the opposition vote.

An opinion poll of 1,693 people conducted two weeks ago by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, run by Professor Eldred Masunungure of the University of Zimbabwe, gives Tsvangirai 28 percent of the vote, Mugabe 20 percent and Makoni 9 percent.

The poll is far from definitive, because the remainder refused to answer, were undecided or didn’t intend to vote.

A defiant Mugabe vowed this week that the opposition “never, never, ever” will govern Zimbabwe, but Mr Masunungure says he will have a hard time winning the simple majority needed to avoid a run-off, provided the vote is fair.

According to independent monitors, civil societies and church groups, the electoral roll is riddled with ghost voters, electoral boundaries favour Mugabe’s rural power base, and there are too few urban polling stations to handle the expected crush. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is stacked with former and current military personnel loyal to Mugabe.

Police and thugs from the youth wing of Mugabe’s party routinely intimidate, arrest and beat opposition party members and supporters.

Mugabe’s government also is seeking to control what is said about the elections. Most of the 300 international journalists who applied for accreditation have been refused, and chief government spokesman George Charamba has warned that those who manage to cover the election from inside Zimbabwe will be under constant surveillance.

Western election monitors are barred, and only delegates from “friendly” countries such as Iran, China, Russia and Libya are invited. The Southern African Development Community Lawyers Association complained Thursday that it had not been given accreditation to observe.

Also invited is a delegation from the Southern African Development Community, the bloc that appointed South African President Thabo Mbeki to mediate in Zimbabwe. Mbeki, criticised for a policy of “quiet diplomacy” many see as encouraging Mugabe’s intransigence, claims he successfully negotiated an agreement for free and fair elections to be held.