Outgoing Australian PM 'very likely' to lose seat

Australia’s outgoing Prime Minister John Howard said it is “very likely” he will lose his seat in Parliament, minutes after he conceded defeat in the national election.

As Labour Party leader Kevin Rudd swept to victory in the prime ministerial race, results showed Howard at risk of losing his home electorate of Bennelong to rival candidate Maxine McKew, a charismatic former television journalist recruited to oust the 68-year-old Howard.

After conceding defeat to Rudd, Howard told his supporters in Sydney that it was “very likely to be the case” that he would also lose his seat in Bennelong.

“But whatever ultimately is the situation, I do want to thank the people of Bennelong who have done me the honour of electing me to represent them in the national Parliament for some 33 years,” Howard said.

``Today Australia has looked to the future,'' Rudd, a Chinese-speaking former diplomat, said in a nationally televised victory speech, to wild cheers from hundreds of supporters.

“Today the Australian people have decided that we as a nation will move forward … to embrace the future, together to write a new page in our nation’s history,” he said.

Howard said in his concession speech in Sydney: “I accept full responsibility for the Liberal Party campaign, and I therefore accept full responsibility for the coalition’s defeat in this election campaign.”

Official figures from the Australian Electoral Commission showed Labour far in front after more than 70% of the ballots had been counted – with 53% of the vote compared to 46.7% for Howard’s coalition.

Using those figures, an Australian Broadcasting Corporation analysis showed that Labour would get at least 81 places in the 150-seat lower house of Parliament – a clear majority.

The change in government also marks a generational shift for Australia.

Rudd, 50, had urged voters to support him because he said Howard was out of touch with modern Australia and ill-equipped to deal with new-age issues such as climate change.

Howard campaigned on his economic management, arguing that his government was mostly responsible for 17 years of unbroken growth, fuelled by China’s and India’s hunger for Australian coal and other minerals, and that Rudd could not be trusted to maintain prosperous times.

A new government is unlikely to mean a large-scale change in Australia’s foreign relations, including with the United States – its most important security partner – or with Asia, which is increasingly important for the economy.

One of the biggest differences will probably be in Australia’s approach to climate change. Rudd has nominated the issue as his top priority, and promised to immediately sign the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas emissions.

When he does, the US will stand alone as the only industrialised country not to have signed the pact.

Rudd said he would withdraw Australia’s 550 combat troops from Iraq, leaving twice that number in mostly security roles. Howard had said all the troops will stay as long as needed.

At home, Rudd has pledged to govern as an “economic conservative,” while pouring money into schools and universities. He will curtail sweeping industrial reforms laws that were perceived to hand bosses too much power, turning many working voters against Howard.

Labour has been out of power for more than a decade, and few in Rudd’s team - including him – has any government experience at the federal level. His team includes a former rock star, one-time Midnight Oil singer Peter Garrett, and a number of former union officials.

But analysts say that Rudd’s foreign policy credentials are impeccable, and that he has shown discipline and political skill since his election as Labour leader 11 months ago.

Rudd’s election as Labour leader marked the start of Howard’s decline in opinion polls, from which he never recovered.

Howard’s four straight election victories since 1996 made him one of Australia’s most successful politicians. But his refusal to stand down before this election, even after being urged to do by some party colleagues, mean his legacy will be tarnished by the hubris of staying too long.

Mark Apthorpe, a 24-year-old information technology worker who lives in Howard’s district of Bennelong, voted for Rudd even though he was happy with the way the economy was being managed.

Like many voters, he said it was time for a change.

“Johnnie’s said a few things that he has gone back on,” Mr Apthorpe said of Howard. “He’s been around a long time, and he’ll be gone in 18 months anyway.”

Howard earlier this year announced plans to retire within about two years if he won the election, sparking claims of arrogance.