Opinion polls helped Brown to decide, admits Straw

Adverse opinion polls played a role in persuading Gordon Brown not to call a snap general election, one of his most senior Cabinet allies confirmed today.

Justice Secretary Jack Straw said it would be “ridiculous” to suggest that Labour’s high command did not take the polls into account when deciding when to go to the country.

His comments came as Mr Brown prepared to face the press and MPs later today to explain his decision that there would be no election in 2007 – and probably not in 2008.

Controversy over the election looks set to dominate his regular monthly press conference at 10 Downing Street, alongside questions about Iraq, which will be the subject of a statement to MPs later in the day.

In the evening, Mr Brown is expected to address the Parliamentary Labour Party - a traditional engagement for the party leader when the Commons returns from its summer break.

Making the announcement on Saturday that there would be no election, the Prime Minister insisted: “The decision I’ve made is because I want to get on with the job of change in this country. And I believe I’ve got to show people that we’re implementing the changes in practice.”

But Conservative leader David Cameron accused Mr Brown of treating the public “like fools”, and asserted he had been pushed into his decision by polls showing he could lose his Commons majority.

Mr Cameron said: “Everybody knows he is not having an election because he thinks there is a chance of losing it and I think that is just treating people like fools and I think it will rebound on him very badly.”

Interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, Mr Straw acknowledged that the polls played a part in the decision.

“The opinion polls are one of the factors that we take into account – it would be ridiculous to suggest otherwise, and I don’t think anybody is doing that,” he said.

Election fever reached its height in the last week of September, as Labour’s poll lead soared to 11% during its Bournemouth conference.

But surveys last week, after the Tories unveiled plans to slash inheritance tax and stamp duty, showed the Labour advantage significantly narrowed – or even eliminated.

Mr Brown’s final decision came ahead of a survey – by ICM for the News of the World – putting Mr Cameron’s party six points ahead in 83 marginal seats, on course to depose 49 Labour MPs and force a hung Parliament.

The Prime Minister insisted he had not feared defeat and told the BBC he felt Labour would win “today, next week or weeks after”.

Asked why he allowed speculation to continue, he said he also had a “duty” to consider all requests for an early election – whether from his own advisers and MPs or the Opposition.

Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman denied this morning that the Prime Minister made his decision on the basis of a series of opinion polls which were “not looking good”.

“I think there is no secret, and nor should there have been, that after he had been dealing with the floods and the terrorism and Northern Rock, then he considered whether to have an election,” she told GMTV.

“I think there is nothing wrong with doing that, if you are a new Prime Minister asking yourself ’Do people actually want me to ask for a mandate, a new general election, or do they just want me to get on with it?’.

“I think there were a number of reasons, in particular, why having an election late on in the year, when it is quite dark... and if people did not want an election, it is right not to force one on them.”

She added: “Being Prime Minister is not about PR, it is actually about running the country properly, and that is what Gordon Brown came into government to do.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell said the “charade” had been conducted entirely in the interests of the Labour Party and accused Mr Brown of reverting to “the worst of Blairism”.

“It is deeply, deeply damaging (to him) and more than that, it is deeply, deeply damaging to politics.”

His party will launch a bid today for legislation to strip prime ministers of the right to pick election dates by imposing four-year fixed-term parliaments.

Mr Straw dismissed the charge: “I do not believe that this is damaging to the Prime Minister.

“We’ve had discombobulation in politics, but this is low on the Richter scale and it will pass.”

Asked if the current controversy represented the beginning of the end for the Prime Minister, Mr Straw added: “I don’t accept that for a second.”

Tony Lloyd, chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party, said Mr Brown had to demonstrate to the public he was a “competent, trustworthy Prime Minister” rather than a “master tactician”.

Speaking to the Today programme, he said: “What Gordon Brown’s got to do is get back to what he was doing so well over the summer, demonstrating that he can provide leadership for the country.”