Italy vote 'too close to call'

Elections pitting Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative coalition against centre-left forces led by Romano Prodi were too close to call tonight after projections showed Berlusconi’s forces leading in the Senate but running neck-and-neck in the lower Chamber of Deputies.

Exit polls and initial projections had given the edge to Prodi’s coalition, but later projections put Berlusconi in the lead.

Projections based on 95% of pollster Nexus’ voting sampling gave Berlusconi’s alliance 158 seats in the Senate compared to 151 for Prodi. However, with a margin of error of 1 to 3 percentage points, the majority was not assured, and six seats chosen by Italians voting abroad were unaccounted for in the projections.

Projections for the Chamber, based on 44% of the vote, gave Berlusconi’s forces 49.9% compared to 49.6% for Prodi’s alliance; no seat breakdown was given.

Prodi postponed a news conference after the projections were released.

The Senate and lower chamber of parliament have equal powers, and any coalition would have to control both in order to form a government. Both centre-left and centre-right leaders have said if neither side controls both houses, new elections should be called.

Even with a one-seat majority in the Senate, a coalition would officially win. But it would find it extremely difficult to pass legislation.

If parliament is split between the two coalitions, the president could try to name a government of technocrats at least until another election is held. He could also seek to fashion a coalition of left and right, but considering the bitter divisions among Italy’s political parties, that seemed unlikely.

Two Nexus exit polls issued 45 minutes apart indicated that in voting yesterday and today, Prodi’s coalition had secured between 50 and 54% of the vote in both the upper and lower chambers of parliament, while Berlusconi’s coalition had between 45 and 49%.

Both exit polls gave Prodi’s Union coalition between 159 and 170 seats in the Senate, compared to 139 and 150 for Berlusconi’s centre-right alliance. The polls did not give an immediate breakdown for seats in the lower Chamber of Deputies.

Voter turnout was about 84%, the Interior Ministry said.

Dario Franceschini, coordinator of the centre-left La Margherita, or Daco-ordinatorisy party – a major partner in Prodi’s coalition – was jubilant after the first exit poll was released, but urged caution.

“Italy has been waiting for five years and deserves this moment,” he said. “If the vote confirms these first exit polls, a strong victory awaits us.”

Former centre-left prime minister Massimo D’Alema called the results “historic,” saying they showed a “net defeat for Berlusconi and the centre-right.”

One senator from Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, Paolo Guzzanti, had appeared resigned to defeat after the exit polls were released. But after the initial Senate projections were published, he predicted a return to the ballot boxes soon.

“If (the numbers) hold, this government will not be able to govern. The Union has no possibility of governing the country,” he said.

Other centre-right leaders urged caution.

“We want to see the real vote count,” Denis Verdini, electoral co-ordinator for Forza Italia, was quoted as saying by the ANSA news agency. “There have always been surprises” with this electoral law.

A telephone survey of 10,000 voters broadcast on SKY TG24 TV revealed a similar picture to the Nexus polls. The Piepoli Institute assigned 52% of the vote to Prodi’s coalition in the lower Chamber while giving Berlusconi’s 47%.

It predicted that in the 630-member Chamber, Prodi’s forces would have at least 340 seats while Berlusconi’s would have at least 277. Its breakdown for the Senate was 167 at least for Prodi’s coalition and 142 at least for Berlusconi’s.

Neither poll sampled Italian voters abroad, who were electing 12 deputies and six senators.

Berlusconi, 69, a billionaire media mogul and the longest-serving prime minister since World War II, failed to jump start a flat economy during his tenure. He founded a business empire that expanded to include Italy’s main private TV networks, the Milan soccer team, as well as publishing, advertising and insurance interests.

He was battling to capture his third premiership with a centre-right bloc – an often squabbling coalition of his Forza Italia party, the former neo-fascist National Alliance, pro-Vatican forces and the anti-immigrant Northern League.

Prodi, 66, was making his comeback bid with a potentially unwieldy coalition of moderate Christian Democrats, Greens, liberals, former Communists and Communists.

One potentially divisive issue – Iraq – was largely deflated before the campaign began, when Berlusconi announced that Italy’s troops there would be withdrawn by year’s end.

Berlusconi had strongly supported US President George W Bush over Iraq, despite fierce Italian opposition to the war. Prodi has said he would bring troops home as soon as possible, security conditions permitting.

Italians were mainly preoccupied by economic worries. Berlusconi promised to abolish a homeowner’s property tax. Prodi said he would revive an inheritance tax abolished by Berlusconi, but only for the richest. He also promised to cut payroll taxes.