Canadian election: Liberals may be on way out

Canadians will determine today whether to send the Liberals packing after 13 years of rule and give the Conservatives a crack at repairing relations with Washington and tackling thorny issues such as health care, tax cuts, child care and crime.

All polls indicated that Canadians were ready for change, disgusted by the broken promises and corruption scandals of the Liberal Party and willing to give Conservative leader Stephen Harper the benefit of doubt, despite fears he’s too extreme in his views opposing abortion and gay marriage.

“Change is an issue for a lot of people,” said Nelson Wiseman, a political scientist at the University of Toronto. “This is the Liberals seeking their fifth consecutive term, so a lot of people believe that it's healthy to have a periodic alteration of parties, like the Americans, so that dynamic is out there.”

Canada’s 22.7 million registered voters will get their first inkling of what’s in store shortly after voting ends in Newfoundland at 7pm EST (midnight Irish time). If it’s a tight race, the winner may not be known until the ballot counting begins in western British Columbia at 10pm EST (3am tomorrow Irish time).

The Conservatives expect to pick up some seats in Atlantic Canada, but are pinning most of their hopes on Ontario, Canada’s most populated province and a traditional bedrock of Liberal support.

They also have a shot at making inroads in Quebec, where they were shut out in the June 2004 elections.

Whichever way it goes, Canada’s political landscape is in for dramatic change. Even if the Liberals defy the polls and eke out a win with a minority government in the 308-seat House of Commons, Prime Minister Paul Martin will remain weak.

If Harper doesn’t win a majority – he’d have to increase Conservative seats from the current 98 to 155 – he’ll need support from opposition parties to get any legislation through the House.

But if Harper succeeds in building a majority government, he could have the power to make sweeping changes to Canada’s bureaucracy-laden social welfare programmes, fulfil a pledge to cut the national sales tax from 7% to 5% and give more autonomy to the country’s 13 provinces and territories.