Turmoil predicted in Middle East after Sharon stroke

Ariel Sharon’s massive stroke yesterday was sure to throw both Israeli politics and Middle East peacemaking efforts into turmoil, perhaps raising the electoral fortunes of hard-line opponents such as Benjamin Netanyahu and damaging prospects for a deal with the Palestinians.

The Israeli prime minister broke away from his hard-line Likud Party in November, and the new centrist party he formed, Kadima, had been the strong favourite to win March 28 elections. But Kadima was largely a one-man show, and no one knows its future without the 77-year-old Sharon.

In recent months, many Israelis have placed high hopes on Sharon as the politician best positioned to draw Israel’s final borders.

The prime minister - once his country’s foremost champion of Jewish settlement building in the West Bank and Gaza – in September became the first Israeli leader to relinquish land the Palestinians claim for a future state when he led Israel out of the Gaza Strip.

Sharon’s transformation from hawk to pragmatist – combined with last year’s death of long-time Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat – has given the Middle East a chance for a return to peacemaking after five years of seemingly endless bloodshed.

In March, Sharon had been expected to face off against Netanyahu, the hawkish former Israeli prime minister who recently won the Likud primaries, and Amir Peretz, the union leader who recently unseated veteran Israeli politician Shimon Peres as head of the Labour Party.

Neither Peretz nor Netanyahu was thought to have much of a chance of forming the next ruling coalition. That may now change.

Sharon’s deputy, former Jerusalem mayor Ehud Olmert, has already taken over the reins of power after the stroke and could emerge as Kadima’s new leader. Olmert, though well known in Israel, would likely have a far tougher time beating either Netanyahu or Peretz than Sharon would have.

After losing to Peretz in the Labour primaries, Peres, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, joined Sharon in Kadima, and it was not clear if he would seek leadership of the new party.

The 82-year-old Peres, though serving briefly as prime minister three times, has never won an Israeli election outright, but he has never put aside his personal ambitions.

When he suffered the stroke, Sharon was still in the process of coming up with a list of candidates to run under the Kadima banner. Now both Kadima’s parliamentary line-up and its electoral future have been thrown into question.

Sharon had indicated that he expected significant progress toward peacemaking in 2006, despite continued violence and growing chaos in the Palestinian territories.

Nonetheless, no major peace moves had been expected until after the Israeli elections in March and Palestinian parliamentary elections scheduled for January 25.

Though Sharon made history by pulling Israeli troops and civilians out of the Gaza Strip and part of the West Bank, most Palestinians continue to see him as an enemy because of his long history of leading military campaigns against them.

Sharon’s exit from the political stage would scramble Israeli politics but also redraw personal relations that are so important to Middle East diplomacy.

Sharon and US President George Bush forged close ties after a rough beginning and the Israeli leader has been a frequent visitor at the White House.

Bush warmly embraced Sharon’s withdrawal from Gaza and backed his tough policy against the Palestinians, echoing Sharon’s demand that the Palestinians take steps to stop violence.