More bird flu in China as cost estimates soar

China has reported two new outbreaks of bird flu among chickens in its north-eastern province of Liaoning, bringing the total number of reported outbreaks in the past month to six.

The outbreaks of the virulent H5N1 virus in Liaoning’s Jinzhou city and Fuxin city began on Sunday and were confirmed yesterday, according to a report by the Ministry of Agriculture.

The news came a day after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned that the country faces a serious threat from bird flu, since the disease is stll not under control despite massive nationwide efforts.

Meanwhile, Vietnam, the country worst hit by bird flu, said the Swiss maker of Tamiflu has agreed to let it produce the antiviral medicine, as experts warned that fighting the disease in poultry and preparing for the next human flu pandemic could cost about $1.5bn (€1.27bn) over the next three years.

The figure includes $1bn (€850m) forecast by the World Bank to cover the cost of combating the virus in poultry in Asian countries already afflicted or at high risk of contracting the disease, as well as the cost of drawing up pandemic flu plans in countries that don’t yet have one.

At the close of a three-day global co-ordination meeting on the issue on Wednesday, the World Health Organisation said it would cost another $500m (€424m) over the same period to develop a pandemic vaccine and scale up its production and to research new antiviral medications.

The total forecast does not include the cost of the world stockpiling the anti-flu drug Tamiflu, WHO said, because the agency’s ongoing negotiations with Roche, the drug’s maker, over the price, supply and distribution of the pills means it is impossible to accurately predict the expense.

WHO plans to buy millions of courses of the drug to ensure that poor countries are able to get some.

In the first known agreement of its kind, Roche will let Vietnam – which has reported most of the 63 known human deaths from bird flu – to start producing Tamiflu as early as next January, said Nguyen Van Thanh of the Health Ministry’s pharmaceutical administration department.

Roche will select qualified Vietnamese pharmaceutical companies to make the medication oseltamivir, commercially called Tamiflu, he said. Roche will provide materials and technical help to Vietnam, a Health Ministry statement said.

Tamiflu is one of few drugs believed effective in treating bird flu, which has spread from Asia to Europe.

Most human cases of bird flu have been traced to direct contact with sick birds, but health officials fear the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that passes easily between people, possibly triggering a deadly pandemic.

Samuel Jutzi, director of animal production and health at the Food and Agriculture Organisation, said experience with stamping out bird flu in poultry in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong shows that it is technically possible – but that much more funding is needed.

Delegates from the US said they hoped that more precise cost estimates will be available by the time major participants gather again in Beijing on January 17-18 for a funding conference.

Delegates said that one of the most striking aspects of the meeting, which drew more than 600 participants from over 100 countries, was the universal acknowledgement that the H5N1 virus poses a serious threat, and the unanimity on the question of what actions need to be taken.

“There’s consensus. There’s clarity. There’s cash – it’ll come in China,” said David Nabarro, the UN co-ordinator for bird and human flu. “There is much better co-ordination. We should be able to deal with the bird flu epidemic much quicker and ... if the pandemic comes, it will be smaller as a result of what’s gone on at this meeting.”

Experts agree that a flu pandemic is inevitable. What is not known is when this will occur, how bad it will be or whether the H5N1 virus will be the culprit.

In Hanoi, Thanh said Roche has also agreed to supply Vietnam with 25 million Tamiflu capsules, enough to treat 2.5 million people.

Vietnam has already stockpiled 600,000 capsules donated by Taiwan, distributing them to infected provinces. Residents have rushed to buy the drug.