Iraqis may have to wait weeks for election results

Iraqis may have to wait weeks to learn the winners of this weekend’s election, with guerrilla attacks and other factors expected to slow the vote tally, a foreign election adviser in said today.

In the interest of transparency, some early results will trickle out as votes are counted, but Iraq’s Independent Electoral Commission will not be able to declare winners until a painstaking count is finished, said the adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“This isn’t the type of election where you have a big tote board somewhere and you’re marking the returns as they come in,” he said. “It won’t be on Sunday night.”

Iraq’s style of election makes it especially difficult to call the results quickly or to question voters leaving the polls to predict an early winner, as is done in Britain.

Iraqis will vote for a list of candidates rather than for individuals, with no possibility for split ticket voting. Seats in Iraq’s 275 member National Assembly will be handed out according to the party’s showing nationwide.

This fact makes the last 10% of the votes counted as critical as the first 10%, the official said.

The prime minister’s job also hinges on the final count. The National Assembly will choose a three-member presidential council which in turn picks the prime minister. The prime minister and his Cabinet must be approved by the assembly.

When voting finishes on Sunday night, election officials are supposed to count the votes at the 5,300 polling sites. Sometime later, they must physically deliver the totals to the electoral commission in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone. For security reasons officials won’t say how those tally sheets will be delivered.

Election officials do not yet know how long it will take workers in the Green Zone to count the results and name the winners. It’s expected to take a week or more.

“It will be a matter of a few days before any data comes out and longer to declare any conclusive result. It could easily run to a couple weeks,” the adviser said.

Rebels have vowed to attack any target related to the elections with the intent of disrupting the vote and tainting the legitimacy of the emerging government. Security measures at election sites will also delay the results, the adviser said.

Since the world’s interest in the vote is so intense, the official said Iraqi election officials want to start releasing results – even if they aren’t final - within a few days, so the vote isn’t seen as tainted or manipulated.

The official said he knew of no exit polling planned for Sunday’s vote. He said he doubted whether exit polls could be accurate in Iraq, a country with little reliable demographic data, an intimidated electorate and an insurgency that has vowed to blast polling stations and those who frequent them.