World awaits outcome of US presidential race

People outside the US could only watch, wait and fume as Americans lined up to vote today in an election that provoked an extraordinary degree of emotional involvement beyond US borders.

It wasn’t just leaders and the news media riveted by the Bush-Kerry choice. Ordinary people are convinced that a world feeling the effects of the US-led occupation of Iraq, cultural and religious conflict and the war on terrorism had a huge stake in the outcome as well.

Saif-ur Rahman, a 36-year-old lawyer in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, planned to tune in early tomorrow morning when results start coming in, hoping to see change in US policy.

“Muslims have suffered under Bush whether they are in America or elsewhere,” he said. “I hope Kerry will change that.”

In Sao Paulo, Brazil, cab driver Wagner Markues, 54, prefers Mr Kerry and wonders why the race is so close.

“We don’t understand America now,” he said. “Are they getting different news than us about the scandals in the Iraqi prisons, and the children and civilians who are getting killed?”

Lee Tim Hoe, a car salesman in Malaysia, said he was keeping his fingers crossed for Mr Kerry to win. “I will try to keep awake to catch the final results.”

Israeli newspapers let their own big local stories – Yasser Arafat’s illness and a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv – take second place, putting the US elections atop their front pages.

“Kerry or Bush”, read the red, white and blue headline in the mass circulation daily Yediot Ahronot. A Day That Will Decide the Fate of the World”, read a banner headline Britain’s Independent newspaper.

Much public comment focused on President George Bush, seen as a polarising figure in many countries. Many people rooted for one side in the US elections with the kind of intensity sometimes lacking in their domestic elections.

Mr Bush’s go-it-alone stance on many issues – from the Kyoto Treaty to the war in Iraq – as well as his religious outlook, his Texas background and single-minded approach, made him a target for many.

Polls in many countries – and a quick survey of the newspapers and TV – leave little doubt that Mr Kerry is the preferred choice across much of the globe.

But while popular opinion was sometimes sceptical of Mr Bush, the President has conspicuous support from the leadership of foreign countries as diverse as Britain, Australia, Russia and Japan.

In Europe, though, Mr Bush remained a tough sell.

“The man to beat”, France’s Liberation said in big type above a picture of the President.

In Germany, where Mr Bush is deeply unpopular, Michael Moore’s anti-Bush film, Fahrenheit 9/11, was prime time fare on national television on election eve.

Many places have held mock polls. One such was held by artists, writers and professors in the Italian region of Tuscany, who organised what they billed as “the first American elections for non-Americans”.

At the heart of the matter is a belief that in an era of globalisation, when American decisions affect hundreds of millions around the globe, the election is not a domestic US issue.

“Why shouldn’t the Italians vote for the elections, too ?” said screenwriter Michele Cogo. “The planet’s destiny is decided in large part by America.”

Plenty of foreign politicians have clear personal stakes in the outcome – and in these circles the choice is more balanced.

Japan’s Junichiro Koizumi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, for instance, have signalled their preference for Mr Bush.

“I don’t want to interfere in another country’s election, but I’m close to Bush so I’d like him to do well,” said Mr Koizumi, who threw in his lot with the US by sending some 500 Japanese troops to Iraq on a humanitarian mission.

Mr Putin has said a Bush defeat would mean a “new impulse” for terrorism, a clear sign of preference though he’s refused to make an explicit endorsement.

Mr Bush has toned down criticism of Russia’s heavy-handed campaign against separatist rebels in Chechnya in return for Mr Putin’s support in the war on terror.

The politicians who were keeping quiet – the usual practice regarding another country’s elections – had a big stake as well.

For France and Germany – dubbed “Old Europe” by US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld – a Kerry White House would mean a chance of mending ties but also could bring new complications.

These nations, which refused to help Mr Bush in Iraq, may have a problem saying no again if Mr Kerry makes good on his campaign pledge to seek more allies in the war.

If Mr Kerry wins, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder may face pressure to back off his refusal to send troops to Iraq. Germany may want a permanent seat on the UN Security Council – and have to offer something in return, a number of observers have pointed out.

“If a newly-elected president calls for a new contribution that we’ve refused up to now, it won’t be so easy to reject as it fortunately has been with the enemy image of Bush,” former defence minister Rudolf Scharping said.