Karzai closer to Afghan election win

With half the votes counted and interim leader Hamid Karzai still holding a 40-point lead, the race for the Afghan presidency could be virtually decided today, a top election official said.

Barring a major shock from an investigation by foreign experts into allegations of electoral fraud brought by Karzai’s challengers, the US-backed incumbent appears set for a landslide victory, bringing him the simple majority required.

“Today’s figures should produce something in excess of 60% and it should be fairly clear what the situation is,” said Reginald Austin, chief technical adviser to the election’s UN and Afghan organisers.

However, official results will only be released after the foreign experts complete their probe and the count is complete, which could take another week or so.

By this morning, 4.14 million of the estimated 8 million votes cast had been counted at eight heavily-guarded counting centres across the country, including at least partial returns from all 34 provinces and from Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran.

Karzai had 2,474,119 votes, or 59.8%, thanks to strong backing from his fellow Pashtun tribesmen in the south and east. But he has attained only mixed results among minorities in the north and centre, perpetuating the country’s deep ethnic divisions.

Former Education Minister Yunus Qanooni, a Tajik, was second at 17.2%. Hazara chieftain Mohammed Mohaqeq had 8.5%, and Uzbek strongman Abdul Rashid Dostum 8.1%.

Austin said a mathematical projection today should also indicate whether Karzai will win the majority needed to avoid a second round. “If we have a run off, we have a lot of work to do,” he said.

Election spokeswoman Silvana Puizina expected another one million votes to be counted today.

She said counting was set to continue on tomorrow – the Muslim holy day usually taken as a holiday in Afghanistan.

Karzai’s rivals allege that he benefited from ballot-box stuffing and men casting votes on behalf of wives and daughters in conservative areas where women are largely confined to the home.

Also, on polling day, there were problems with ink used to mark voters’ fingers to prevent people from casting more than one ballot.

The October 9 election, hoped to draw a line under a quarter-century of conflict in Afghanistan, passed off largely peacefully despite threats by Taliban rebels to sabotage the vote.

Yesterday, the US military claimed the lack of major violence had deepened a rift between fugitive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and some of his lieutenants, and had demoralised the rebels.

Omar, whose hard-line Islamic regime harboured Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida followers, has been in hiding since a US-led military campaign ousted the Taliban regime in 2001.