Japan goes to the polls

Millions of Japanese went to the polls today in nationwide parliamentary elections overshadowed by concerns over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s social policies and his decision to dispatch hundreds of Japanese troops to Iraq.

Exit polls results by public broadcaster NHK immediately after the voting booths closed indicated Koizumi’s Liberal Democratic Party would keep a majority but be hard-pressed to maintain its current number of seats, while the main opposition party would likely gain strength in Parliament’s upper house.

Half of the chamber’s 242 seats were contested.

Going into the vote, the Liberal Democrats held 115 seats in the upper house and controlled a majority of seats together with coalition partner Komeito’s 23 seats. The top opposition party, the Democrats, had 70.

By late afternoon, voter turnout was 33.6%, marginally better than the previous upper house election three years ago, which had one of the worst turnouts ever. Final figures for the day were not available, but higher a turnout has tended to work in favour of opposition parties.

The elections came at a difficult time for Koizumi.

Though one of Japan’s most popular post-war leaders, his support has been plunging. A survey by Japan’s largest newspaper, the Yomiuri, showed Koizumi’s support has fallen to 35.7% – the first time it had dropped below 40% since he took office in April 2001.

Pollsters attribute the decline to anger over a new law that hikes mandatory pension premiums and cuts benefits – a major issue in a nation that has the world’s longest life expectancy for both men and women and is greying rapidly.

The safety of Japan’s troops in Iraq has also been an issue, especially since no Japanese soldier has killed or been killed in battle since World War II.

Responding to US President George Bush’s call for ”boots on the ground,” Koizumi championed the plan to dispatch several hundred soldiers on a non-combat, humanitarian mission to the southern Iraqi city of Samawah almost six months ago in this country’s biggest overseas military operation since World War II. The security situation has deteriorated rapidly, raising fears that the soldiers could become a target for insurgents.

Koizumi’s party is also battling a rise in support among voters for a two-party system.

The Democrats, emboldened by big strides in elections last November for the lower house, have appealed to voters to give them a chance to provide a viable, centrist alternative to the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP has ruled almost continuously since the party was created in 1955.

“I felt good momentum, but how that translates into voter turnout will determine the race,” Democratic Party chief Katsuya Okada said before the polls closed. The Democrats had 38 seats that were contested Sunday.

Before the vote, the LDP set its victory bar low.

Party leaders said they would consider winning 51 seats – one more than its 50 seats being contested – a good showing. But recent opinion polls indicated Koizumi’s party would likely fall short of even that goal, losing a few seats, while the Democrats would increase their presence.

The LDP and the Komeito combined must win 43 seats on Sunday to protect its majority in the upper house. Polls indicated that the Komeito – a party backed by the Buddhist organisation Soka Gakkai – would hold on to its 10 seats being contested.

The result was not expected to threaten the LDP-led ruling coalition’s grip on power because it controls a majority of seats in the lower house, the more powerful of Parliament’s two chambers. A big loss could lessen support for Koizumi in his party, weakening his leadership.

Koizumi was not up for election himself, as he holds a seat in the lower house.